England v Wales Bet Builder Tips


Fraser Bricknell
Tipman founder, lifelong football fan and stats-driven tipster with seven years of winning experience.
Published Date: October 13, 2025 9:58 PM



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England travel to Riga knowing that victory will officially seal their place at next summer’s World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada.
Thomas Tuchel’s side sit top of Group K with a perfect record of five wins from five, scoring 13 goals and conceding none. They’ve led the group across every major metric, including expected points and expected goals, and have limited opponents to very few clear chances throughout qualifying.
Their 5–0 demolition of Serbia in Belgrade last month was their most complete performance so far, showing sharper patterns in possession and improved central penetration. Tuchel’s arrival has brought a clear structure, and the balance of the side looks stronger with Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson anchoring midfield. Harry Kane continues to lead the line, with Morgan Rogers and Eberechi Eze offering support.
Latvia, by contrast, are near the bottom of the group with just four points from five games. They opened with a win over Andorra but have since failed to score in three straight matches. Their non-penalty expected goals figure sits below 0.7 per game and they’ve conceded first in four of their five qualifiers.
This is a fixture England are expected to control from the first whistle.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
HT/FT: England / England
Reason for Tip
England have led at both half-time and full-time in each of their last six European Qualifiers, including away fixtures. Latvia have trailed at the break in four of their last five competitive matches. England also beat Latvia 10–0 in their previous competitive meeting, scoring early and controlling possession from the outset. Their attacking depth and superior quality make them strong favourites to establish a first-half lead and maintain it.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Under 11.5 Corners
Reason for Tip
England matches in qualification campaigns tend to produce moderate corner counts, averaging 8.6 total corners per game across their last eight qualifiers. Away from home, they’ve only seen 12 or more corners once in their last six away qualifiers. Latvia’s games have averaged 7.8 corners in the same period, with limited attacking output and few sustained spells of pressure. Statistically, this points toward a lower overall corner total.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Eberechi Eze 1+ Shots on Target
Reason for Tip
Eze has averaged 1.2 shots on target per 90 minutes across his appearances for Crystal Palace F.C. in the current season. When starting for England in friendlies and qualifiers, he’s been encouraged to drift inside and shoot from central areas. Against lower-ranked nations, England’s attacking midfielders regularly register at least one effort on target, and Latvia have allowed an average of 6.1 shots on target per game in their last five qualifiers.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Harry Kane to Score
Reason for Tip
Kane is England’s all-time top scorer with over 60 international goals and has scored in 8 of his last 10 competitive appearances. In Euro and World Cup qualifiers since 2017, he’s averaged 1.07 goals per game. Against lower-ranked UEFA sides (FIFA ranking outside top 50), he’s scored in 14 of 16 appearances. Latvia have conceded in every qualifier this campaign, averaging 2.3 goals against per match.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Andrejs Ciganiks 1+ Fouls
Reason for Tip
Ciganiks, Latvia’s left-sided midfielder, averages 1.4 fouls per 90 minutes in international competition. England’s right flank is one of their most aggressive attacking channels, often involving overlapping full-backs and wide forwards. Latvia’s last match saw Ciganiks commit two fouls trying to contain wide players, and he has been booked twice in his last five caps.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Antonijs Cernomordijs 1+ Fouls
Reason for Tip
Cernomordijs, who plays primarily as a centre-back, averages 1.3 fouls per 90 at international level. Facing England’s direct central runners like Kane and Eze, he’s likely to be drawn into contact situations. He has committed at least one foul in 8 of his last 10 competitive appearances for Latvia, with a history of late challenges and aerial duels.

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Kane is expected to return to the starting lineup after missing the Wales match. Watkins, who scored in his absence, faces a late fitness check after colliding with the post. Jarell Quansah is out.
Tuchel has rotated heavily in recent games, leaving out big names like Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden to keep the squad fresh, but England’s depth means any changes won’t affect their strength.
Predicted Line-ups
Latvia (3-5-2): Zviedris; Veips, Cernomordijs, Balodis; Ciganiks, Saveljevs, Varslavans, Zelenkovs, Savalnieks; Sits, Gutkovskis.
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Konsa, Stones, Guehi, Lewis-Skelly; Rice, Anderson; Saka, Eze, Rogers; Kane.

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Latvia Form
Latvia’s defensive structure is typically built around a compact 5-3-2 or 5-4-1 shape, but they’ve struggled to maintain it under extended pressure.
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Winless in 6
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2–2 draw with Andorra last weekend
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Conceded in every qualifier this campaign
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Average of 16.4 shots and 5.2 shots on target faced per match
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1.75 xGA conceded per game
They’ve been more competitive than in previous cycles but remain vulnerable when defending deep for long spells.
England Form
England have won all five qualifiers so far, scoring 13 and conceding none.
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✅ 5 wins from 5
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⚽ 13 goals scored, 0 conceded
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🧱 6 clean sheets in their last 7 matches
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2.35 xG created per 90, the highest in Group K
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16 big chances created, 13 converted
Tuchel’s side have controlled tempo and possession throughout the campaign, often establishing dominance in the opening half hour.
Head to Head
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England beat Latvia 3–0 at Wembley earlier this year
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England had 76% possession and 3.51 xG in that match
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Latvia managed just one shot on target
That game followed a clear pattern: Latvia sat deep, England controlled tempo through midfield and repeatedly worked space down both flanks.
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✅ England HT/FT
England have led at half time and full time in each of their last six qualifiers. Latvia have conceded first in four of their five matches. England’s early tempo and control make another quick start likely.
✅ Under 11.5 Corners
England’s last eight qualifiers have averaged 8.6 total corners, with only one match passing 12. Latvia’s home qualifiers average 7.8. England control the ball but create fewer frantic situations that drive corner counts up.
✅ Eberechi Eze 1+ Shot on Target
Eze averages 1.2 shots on target per 90 for Crystal Palace F.C.. Latvia have allowed an average of 5.2 shots on target per match in qualifying. England’s possession and territorial dominance create plenty of shooting opportunities for advanced midfielders.
✅ Harry Kane Anytime Goalscorer
Kane has scored in 8 of his last 10 competitive appearances for England and has over 60 international goals. Against teams ranked outside the top 50, he’s scored in 14 of 16 matches. Latvia have conceded in every qualifier so far.
✅ Andrejs Ciganiks 1+ Foul
Ciganiks averages 1.4 fouls per 90 for Latvia and has been booked twice in his last five international appearances. He’ll be up against England’s most aggressive attacking channel on the right.
✅ Antonijs Cernomordijs 1+ Foul
Cernomordijs averages 1.3 fouls per 90 at international level and has committed at least one in eight of his last ten caps. Up against Kane and Eze centrally, he’s likely to be drawn into duels inside dangerous areas.

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Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
HT/FT: England / England
Reason for Tip
England have led at both half-time and full-time in each of their last six European Qualifiers, including away fixtures. Latvia have trailed at the break in four of their last five competitive matches. England also beat Latvia 10–0 in their previous competitive meeting, scoring early and controlling possession from the outset. Their attacking depth and superior quality make them strong favourites to establish a first-half lead and maintain it.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Under 11.5 Corners
Reason for Tip
England matches in qualification campaigns tend to produce moderate corner counts, averaging 8.6 total corners per game across their last eight qualifiers. Away from home, they’ve only seen 12 or more corners once in their last six away qualifiers. Latvia’s games have averaged 7.8 corners in the same period, with limited attacking output and few sustained spells of pressure. Statistically, this points toward a lower overall corner total.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Eberechi Eze 1+ Shots on Target
Reason for Tip
Eze has averaged 1.2 shots on target per 90 minutes across his appearances for Crystal Palace F.C. in the current season. When starting for England in friendlies and qualifiers, he’s been encouraged to drift inside and shoot from central areas. Against lower-ranked nations, England’s attacking midfielders regularly register at least one effort on target, and Latvia have allowed an average of 6.1 shots on target per game in their last five qualifiers.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Harry Kane to Score
Reason for Tip
Kane is England’s all-time top scorer with over 60 international goals and has scored in 8 of his last 10 competitive appearances. In Euro and World Cup qualifiers since 2017, he’s averaged 1.07 goals per game. Against lower-ranked UEFA sides (FIFA ranking outside top 50), he’s scored in 14 of 16 appearances. Latvia have conceded in every qualifier this campaign, averaging 2.3 goals against per match.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Andrejs Ciganiks 1+ Fouls
Reason for Tip
Ciganiks, Latvia’s left-sided midfielder, averages 1.4 fouls per 90 minutes in international competition. England’s right flank is one of their most aggressive attacking channels, often involving overlapping full-backs and wide forwards. Latvia’s last match saw Ciganiks commit two fouls trying to contain wide players, and he has been booked twice in his last five caps.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Antonijs Cernomordijs 1+ Fouls
Reason for Tip
Cernomordijs, who plays primarily as a centre-back, averages 1.3 fouls per 90 at international level. Facing England’s direct central runners like Kane and Eze, he’s likely to be drawn into contact situations. He has committed at least one foul in 8 of his last 10 competitive appearances for Latvia, with a history of late challenges and aerial duels.
Latvia have improved structurally, but the gulf in quality and underlying metrics between these sides is clear. England average 2.35 xG per game and have yet to concede in qualifying, while Latvia allow more than 16 shots per match and struggle to sustain attacks.
Tuchel’s men should seal qualification comfortably.
📝 Tipman Prediction: England to control the match early and win without fuss.
📊 Scoreline: Latvia 0–3 England

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When is the match?
Tuesday 14 October 2025, 7:45pm (UK)
Where is it being played?
Daugava Stadium, Riga
How can I watch it?
Live on ITV and ITVX in the UK.
Why are there fouls and shots in the bet builder?
In one-sided qualifiers, foul and shot markets often offer stronger value and more consistent patterns than headline goals markets alone.

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Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
HT/FT: England / England
Reason for Tip
England have led at both half-time and full-time in each of their last six European Qualifiers, including away fixtures. Latvia have trailed at the break in four of their last five competitive matches. England also beat Latvia 10–0 in their previous competitive meeting, scoring early and controlling possession from the outset. Their attacking depth and superior quality make them strong favourites to establish a first-half lead and maintain it.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Under 11.5 Corners
Reason for Tip
England matches in qualification campaigns tend to produce moderate corner counts, averaging 8.6 total corners per game across their last eight qualifiers. Away from home, they’ve only seen 12 or more corners once in their last six away qualifiers. Latvia’s games have averaged 7.8 corners in the same period, with limited attacking output and few sustained spells of pressure. Statistically, this points toward a lower overall corner total.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Eberechi Eze 1+ Shots on Target
Reason for Tip
Eze has averaged 1.2 shots on target per 90 minutes across his appearances for Crystal Palace F.C. in the current season. When starting for England in friendlies and qualifiers, he’s been encouraged to drift inside and shoot from central areas. Against lower-ranked nations, England’s attacking midfielders regularly register at least one effort on target, and Latvia have allowed an average of 6.1 shots on target per game in their last five qualifiers.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Harry Kane to Score
Reason for Tip
Kane is England’s all-time top scorer with over 60 international goals and has scored in 8 of his last 10 competitive appearances. In Euro and World Cup qualifiers since 2017, he’s averaged 1.07 goals per game. Against lower-ranked UEFA sides (FIFA ranking outside top 50), he’s scored in 14 of 16 appearances. Latvia have conceded in every qualifier this campaign, averaging 2.3 goals against per match.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Andrejs Ciganiks 1+ Fouls
Reason for Tip
Ciganiks, Latvia’s left-sided midfielder, averages 1.4 fouls per 90 minutes in international competition. England’s right flank is one of their most aggressive attacking channels, often involving overlapping full-backs and wide forwards. Latvia’s last match saw Ciganiks commit two fouls trying to contain wide players, and he has been booked twice in his last five caps.
Latvia vs England - WC Qualification Europe
Antonijs Cernomordijs 1+ Fouls
Reason for Tip
Cernomordijs, who plays primarily as a centre-back, averages 1.3 fouls per 90 at international level. Facing England’s direct central runners like Kane and Eze, he’s likely to be drawn into contact situations. He has committed at least one foul in 8 of his last 10 competitive appearances for Latvia, with a history of late challenges and aerial duels.

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