Italy v Israel: Bet Builder Tips & Predictions

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Tyler Smith

An enthusiastic sports writer with a passion for Football, American Sports and Formula 1, bringing sharp insight and informed betting analysis to every weekend.

Published Date: October 13, 2025 11:30 AM

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Italy v Israel Bet Builder Tips - Intro

The World Cup qualifying campaign continues this week as Italy host Israel in what promises to be an intriguing midweek encounter between two sides with contrasting ambitions. For the Azzurri, this fixture offers another chance to strengthen their position in the group and continue adapting to life under Gennaro Gattuso, whose fiery touchline energy and passion for discipline have already begun to reshape Italy’s approach. Israel, meanwhile, travel to Italy knowing they face one of Europe’s most decorated footballing nations — but also aware that the hosts are still fine-tuning their rhythm under new leadership.

Since taking over, Gattuso has aimed to bring intensity, aggression, and balance back into Italy’s play. His side has shown flashes of the old Azzurri grit — tight defensive lines, compact pressing, and quick transitions through midfield. With key figures such as Gianluigi Donnarumma, Federico Dimarco, Nicolo Barella, and Domenico Berardi likely to feature, Italy will look to dominate possession and dictate the tempo from the start. Yet, Gattuso’s team still seeks consistency in front of goal, and this qualifier offers a timely opportunity to build confidence and assert control in their group.

For Israel, the task is daunting but far from hopeless. The visitors have earned respect in recent campaigns for their structured defending and efficient counter-attacking play. With attacking threats such as Manor Solomon and the experienced Eran Zahavi, they carry enough firepower to trouble Italy if given space. Manager Ran Ben-Shimon will likely instruct his side to stay compact, frustrate the hosts, and exploit transitions. While Italy enter as strong favourites, Israel’s organisation and resilience could make this a more competitive midweek fixture than many expect.

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Italy v Israel Match Preview

🔍 Recent Form & Context

Italy’s qualification path under Gattuso has gotten off to a promising start. In his opening games, the Azzurri have looked more vibrant and decisive than in recent campaigns. A 5-0 win over Estonia and a dramatic 5-4 victory over Israel in their last meeting showcased both attacking potency and defensive fragility. Especially in that high-scoring affair, Italy twice fell behind, conceded two own goals, yet showed resilience to snatch victory late. The consistency of results has given them momentum in Group I and a measure of confidence going into this home tie.

Israel, for their part, will arrive with some confidence — they’ve shown flashes of ability to pressure stronger sides, particularly exploiting Israel’s speed and direct attacking transitions. Their recent form is less consistent, but they have the capacity to create problems in tight games if they stay compact, limit Italy’s space, and look to hit on counters. Past meetings suggest that when Israel keep their structure right, the gap can narrow.

What amplifies the stakes in this confrontation is the off-field atmosphere. Gattuso has publicly acknowledged that the match will be played under unusual and tense conditions, with heightened security, reduced fan turnout, and protests expected due to the political context surrounding the fixture. Such factors could affect the intensity and psychology of the match, meaning both sides must be ready to remain focused regardless of external noise.

🩺 Team News & Selection Issues

Gattuso has named a 27-man squad for the qualifiers against Estonia and Israel, with notable inclusions and absences. Among the newcomers are Hans Nicolussi Caviglia and Nicolò Cambiaghi, earning their first senior call-ups, while Matteo Gabbia and Bryan Cristante return after earlier absences. On the flip side, Federico Chiesa has been omitted due to lingering fitness concerns, despite showing glimpses of form.

Moise Kean remains a key attacking option; however, he’s recently had to be replaced in matches due to injury concerns, and Gattuso has spoken about the need for his fitness to be monitored carefully. In defence, Alessandro Bastoni is suspended after collecting bookings, meaning Gianluca Mancini is expected to step in. Italy will have to rejig their backline and midfield balance without weakening their offensive threat.

For Israel, there are no major injury reports making headlines, which suggests their starting core could mirror recent lineups. Their strength will likely be in continuity and cohesion, trusting players accustomed to this level under pressure to perform and maintain structure.

⚙ Tactical Outlook & Key Matchups

Italy are expected to take the initiative, push for early control, and use width to stretch Israel’s defence. With creative players in midfield and attacking options ready to break forward, the hosts will aim to overload in advanced zones and punish Israel for any transitional lapses. But they must guard against being too open — Israel’s counterattacks and ability to exploit space could be dangerous.

Israel’s approach will probably be more cautious: compact shape, disciplined lines, minimizing risk, and making the most of transitions, set-pieces, and moments of turnover. Their defenders will need to be alert, particularly against crosses and runs from wingbacks, while midfielders will have to work hard to close gaps.

Key matchups to watch could include Israel’s attempts to isolate full-backs and draw midfielders wide, while Italy’s decision to rotate defensive positions—due to Bastoni’s absence—may test cohesion. How well Italy adapt in defence when pressed, and whether Israel can force them into errors, may determine the outcome more than sheer quality.

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Why Each Leg Makes Sense

Italy to win
This game has become a must win for Italy, sitting second in their group and 6 points off Norway who sit at the top of the group. Last time out, Italy bested Israel in a wild 4-5 game away from home, so with Italy back in their own stadia, they should be looking for a resounding win to keep the pressure on.

Over 2.5 goals
Italy in World Cup qualifiers tends to mean goals. All bar 1 of their World Cup qualifying games so far has landed over 2.5 goals and this game should be no different, especially considering the last game which landed over 8.5 goals!

Mateo Retegui 2+ Shots on Target
Retegui is the main man for Italy up front and has continued his fine form from last season, albeit now playing in Saudi Arabia. Last game out, this landed vs Estonia including a missed penalty so we like the value here for a couple of shots on target.

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Italy v Israel - Historical Stats

⚽ Italy vs Israel — Historical Head-to-Head

Category	Detail
Total matches (major competitions)	9
Italy wins	8
Draws	1
Israel wins	0
Goals scored (Italy) across these matches	~22
Goals scored (Israel) across these matches	~7

🔍 Recent Meetings & Notable Results

On 8 September 2025, Italy beat Israel 5-4 in a dramatic World Cup qualifier in Hungary.
On 14 October 2024, Italy won 4-1 over Israel in the UEFA Nations League.
On 9 September 2024, Italy won 2-1 away in Israel in the Nations League.

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Predicted Line-Ups

Italy Predicted Lineup:

Donnarumma,

Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Calafiori, Dimarco

Orsolini, Barella, Tonali, Spinazzola,

Retegui, Esposito

Israel Predicted Lineup:

Peretz,

Dasa, Baltaxa, Nachmias, Revivo,

Fani, Peretz,

Solomon, Gloukh, Khalaili,

Baribo

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Where to Watch Italy v Israel (World Cup Qualifier – 14th October 2025)

UK

The match will be available on Amazon Prime Video (UK) as a pay-per-view event.
On Live Football On TV, the listing confirms “Italy v Israel” under Amazon Prime PPV at 19:45.

🌍 International / Other Countries

In Italy, the match will be shown live on RAI and via RAI Play (public broadcaster).
In the USA, it’s listed on Fox Sports 2 and streaming via fuboTV.
In Canada, the match will be available on DAZN Canada.
In Israel, broadcast is handled via Sport1 / The Sports Channel per UEFA’s publications.

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