Grêmio vs São Paulo Betting Tips & Match Preview – Brazil Série A (16 October 2025)

16791

Ben Beard

Co-founder of Tipman and a well-known tipster with over a decade of profitable tracked results. Featured on the Racing Post NAPs table, Ben brings proven expertise and sharp racing insight.

Get £40 In Free Bets When you Bet £10
Get £40 In Free Bets When you Bet £10

New customers only. 7 days to place qualifying bet of £10 at 1/1 (2.0) to receive 4 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 football, 1 x £10 horse racing & 2 x ...

⚽ Match Overview

Grêmio welcome São Paulo in a clash that looks evenly balanced on paper, with both sides showing contrasting styles and recent form lines. Grêmio have picked up 8 points from their last five matches (1.6 points per game), while São Paulo have managed 6 (1.2 points per game).

The hosts have seen Both Teams to Score (BTTS) land in four of their last five games, whereas São Paulo’s recent matches have been tighter, with BTTS landing just once in the same span.

Gremio vs Sao Paulo

16 Oct 23:00 - Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
16 Oct 23:00
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A

Grêmio Win

Match Result
47/20

Reason for Tip

Grêmio to Win
Grêmio have taken 8 points from their last five matches and boast a higher shot conversion rate (12%) compared to São Paulo’s 6%. At home, they average 1.6 points per game and tend to capitalise on limited chances — a clear edge over a São Paulo side who often dominate possession but struggle to convert. Grêmio’s efficiency and home crowd advantage tilt this one their way.

16 Oct 23:00 - Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
16 Oct 23:00
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A

Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals
1/2

Reason for Tip

Under 2.5 Goals
Statistically, only 31% of these fixtures produce over 2.5 goals, while both sides average fewer than two combined goals per match in recent form. São Paulo’s away games in particular have been tight, averaging just 1.5 total goals. Expect a structured game where defences stay organised and one or two key moments settle it.

16 Oct 23:00 - Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
16 Oct 23:00
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A

Over 3.5 Cards

Over 3.5 Cards
2/9

Reason for Tip

Over 3.5 Cards
The numbers point strongly towards a card-heavy contest — this fixture averages over 5 bookings per game, with a 95% probability of exceeding 2.5 cards. Both sides field aggressive players: Walter Kannemann and Douglas Moreira for Grêmio, plus Luciano da Rocha Neves and Enzo Díaz for São Paulo, who each sit among their club’s most booked players. High intensity and tactical fouls make this a prime card angle.

16 Oct 23:00 - Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
16 Oct 23:00
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A

Over 7.5 Corners

Over 7.5 Corners
8/25

Reason for Tip

Over 7.5 Corners
With both teams favouring width and averaging a combined 9.1 corners per match, the stats clearly support a corners play. São Paulo’s crossing volume is high, and Grêmio’s transitional counters often earn set-pieces at the other end. Over 7.5 corners has landed in 70% of previous meetings — well within range for another open, end-to-end encounter.

TipMan Premium - The UK's #1 Betting Tip Subscription Service
TipMan Premium - The UK's #1 Betting Tip Subscription Service

Join over 2,300 savvy bettors who are already profiting from expert football and horse racing tips. Tipman Tips offers you unparalleled insights, back...

📊 Head-to-Head & Trends

Across the last 25 meetings, these two sides are locked level — 36% wins apiece and 28% draws. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 60% of those fixtures, while Over 2.5 has come in 40%. BTTS has hit in 11 of those 25 (around 44%), suggesting goals are usually shared, but rarely in high numbers.

TipMan Premium 50% OFF DISCOUNT
TipMan Premium 50% OFF DISCOUNT

Use discount code 'HALFPRICE' at the checkout and Join over 2,300 savvy bettors who are already profiting from expert football and horse racing tips. ...

"Excellent tips. Keep it going Tipman. No better tipsters around..."
"I have joined Tipman services over 1 month and 5..."
"Although the service you lads provide is quality I kind..."
"Good tips"
"Without doubt the best tipping service out there 100% recommend"
"Great bunch of tipsters with a great consistent profit"
"So far so good!"
"Been with Tipman Tips for years, good profitable tipsters."
"Not sure yet, have't been with them long enough, but..."
"Banging tips make more than the subscription every month don’t..."
🔍 Statistical Breakdown

  • Goals & Attack:
    Grêmio’s recent games average around 2.2 goals combined, with stronger attacking output at home. São Paulo’s matches are lower-scoring overall, averaging 1.8 goals.
    Grêmio typically register around 9.7 shots per match (3.6 on target) compared to São Paulo’s 13 shots (4.6 on target). Despite fewer attempts, Grêmio’s finishing rate is much higher at roughly 12% versus São Paulo’s 6%.

  • Possession & Control:
    São Paulo tend to dominate possession, averaging 54% across recent games, while Grêmio sit closer to 46%. This suggests São Paulo may dictate tempo, but Grêmio remain dangerous in transitions.

  • Discipline:
    The card average for this fixture sits at just over 5 per game, with a 95% probability of at least three bookings. Walter Kannemann and Douglas Moreira (Grêmio) and Luciano da Rocha Neves and Enzo Díaz (São Paulo) are all serial offenders.

  • Corners:
    Expect activity from wide areas — this fixture averages roughly 9 corners per game, with over 6.5 corners landing in 70% of meetings.

  • Scoring Patterns:
    Goals tend to arrive in the second half, particularly between minutes 41–50 and 81–90 for Grêmio, while São Paulo also show a late-scoring bias.

💡 Key Insights

  1. Moderate goal expectancy:
    There’s a strong 62% probability for Over 1.5 goals but only around 31% for Over 2.5, suggesting a 1–1 or 2–0 type of match is most plausible.

  2. Grêmio edge at home:
    Home advantage and better conversion rates give Grêmio a marginal edge, even if São Paulo’s possession metrics look stronger on paper.

  3. BTTS finely balanced:
    Recent form makes BTTS a 50/50 call. Grêmio games often feature it; São Paulo’s do not. Market prices reflect that balance.

  4. Cards are a banker angle:
    Consistent high booking rates make Over 2.5 or Over 3.5 cards a solid market to target.

  5. Corners value:
    Over 7.5 corners is supported by both teams’ attacking profiles and recent averages.

  6. Second-half action:
    Late goals are common — “Second Half to have more goals than First Half” looks a strong data-backed play.

Bet £10 & Get £30 In Free Bets
Bet £10 & Get £30 In Free Bets

Registration required. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min od...

🎯 TipMan’s Betting Selections

Market Selection Reasoning
Match Result Grêmio to Win Home advantage, better finishing, and stronger recent form.
Over/Under 1.5 Goals Over 1.5 Goals 62% probability and consistent mid-range scoring patterns.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals Under 2.5 Goals Only 31% chance of a high-scoring match.
Both Teams To Score No São Paulo’s low BTTS frequency makes this a value angle.
Cards Over 3.5 Total Cards Strong disciplinary trends from both sides.
Corners Over 7.5 Corners High frequency of 8+ corners historically.
Goals Half Split More Goals in 2nd Half Late scoring patterns common to both teams.
Goalscorer Martin Braithwaite (Grêmio) In form and clinical, 6 goals this season.
⚠️ Betting Notes

  • Team news could swing markets — late injuries to key attackers or defenders would impact totals and BTTS probabilities.

  • Brazilian Série A matches can be cagey early, with tempo increasing after halftime — a late-goal angle offers value.

  • Always check line-ups before placing goalscorer or card bets.

Gremio vs Sao Paulo

16 Oct 23:00 - Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
16 Oct 23:00
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A

Grêmio Win

Match Result
47/20

Reason for Tip

Grêmio to Win
Grêmio have taken 8 points from their last five matches and boast a higher shot conversion rate (12%) compared to São Paulo’s 6%. At home, they average 1.6 points per game and tend to capitalise on limited chances — a clear edge over a São Paulo side who often dominate possession but struggle to convert. Grêmio’s efficiency and home crowd advantage tilt this one their way.

16 Oct 23:00 - Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
16 Oct 23:00
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A

Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals
1/2

Reason for Tip

Under 2.5 Goals
Statistically, only 31% of these fixtures produce over 2.5 goals, while both sides average fewer than two combined goals per match in recent form. São Paulo’s away games in particular have been tight, averaging just 1.5 total goals. Expect a structured game where defences stay organised and one or two key moments settle it.

16 Oct 23:00 - Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
16 Oct 23:00
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A

Over 3.5 Cards

Over 3.5 Cards
2/9

Reason for Tip

Over 3.5 Cards
The numbers point strongly towards a card-heavy contest — this fixture averages over 5 bookings per game, with a 95% probability of exceeding 2.5 cards. Both sides field aggressive players: Walter Kannemann and Douglas Moreira for Grêmio, plus Luciano da Rocha Neves and Enzo Díaz for São Paulo, who each sit among their club’s most booked players. High intensity and tactical fouls make this a prime card angle.

16 Oct 23:00 - Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
16 Oct 23:00
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A

Over 7.5 Corners

Over 7.5 Corners
8/25

Reason for Tip

Over 7.5 Corners
With both teams favouring width and averaging a combined 9.1 corners per match, the stats clearly support a corners play. São Paulo’s crossing volume is high, and Grêmio’s transitional counters often earn set-pieces at the other end. Over 7.5 corners has landed in 70% of previous meetings — well within range for another open, end-to-end encounter.

Bet £10 Get £50 in Free Bets
Bet £10 Get £50 in Free Bets

New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in S...

🧠 TipMan Verdict

Grêmio look the value side here. They’re more efficient in front of goal, have home advantage, and match up well against São Paulo’s more possession-based but less clinical approach. Expect a tactical affair, likely decided by a single goal — with a strong chance of cards and corners to keep punters interested.

Predicted Score: Grêmio 2–0 São Paulo

Best Bets & Data-Backed Reasoning

Grêmio to Win
Grêmio have taken 8 points from their last five matches and boast a higher shot conversion rate (12%) compared to São Paulo’s 6%. At home, they average 1.6 points per game and tend to capitalise on limited chances — a clear edge over a São Paulo side who often dominate possession but struggle to convert. Grêmio’s efficiency and home crowd advantage tilt this one their way.

Under 2.5 Goals
Statistically, only 31% of these fixtures produce over 2.5 goals, while both sides average fewer than two combined goals per match in recent form. São Paulo’s away games in particular have been tight, averaging just 1.5 total goals. Expect a structured game where defences stay organised and one or two key moments settle it.

Over 3.5 Cards
The numbers point strongly towards a card-heavy contest — this fixture averages over 5 bookings per game, with a 95% probability of exceeding 2.5 cards. Both sides field aggressive players: Walter Kannemann and Douglas Moreira for Grêmio, plus Luciano da Rocha Neves and Enzo Díaz for São Paulo, who each sit among their club’s most booked players. High intensity and tactical fouls make this a prime card angle.

Over 7.5 Corners
With both teams favouring width and averaging a combined 9.1 corners per match, the stats clearly support a corners play. São Paulo’s crossing volume is high, and Grêmio’s transitional counters often earn set-pieces at the other end. Over 7.5 corners has landed in 70% of previous meetings — well within range for another open, end-to-end encounter.

Bet £10 get £40 In Free Bets
Bet £10 get £40 In Free Bets

New UK customers. Min £10 first deposit. Place a bet of £10 at min odds of 2.0 and get £40 in Free Bets within 48 hours. Restrictions apply. Full T...

📈 Full Match Stats & TipMan Tools

For live stats, xG data, team trends and in-play insights for this fixture, visit the full stats page below:
👉 View full Grêmio vs São Paulo match stats here

Explore every league, match, and betting angle with our free TipMan Football Stats Software – featuring team form, goal probabilities, BTTS data, cards, corners, and more:
👉 Try the free TipMan Football Stats Software here

💰 Exclusive Bookmaker Deals & Free Bet Offers

Looking to get the best prices, boosted odds, and free bet promotions before placing your bets?
Our dedicated bookmaker offers hub is the best place to find verified UK deals, deposit bonuses, and enhanced specials from trusted betting partners.

🔥 Check out TipMan’s Best Bookmaker Deals & Offers 👉
https://www.tipmantips.com/bookies/

Unlock the top sign-up offers, compare value between bookies, and make sure you’re always betting with the best possible edge.

18+ | Please gamble responsibly | Odds subject to change.

Explore More with TipMan 🔗
  • Free Football Betting Tips – Daily football tips, accumulators, and previews across the Premier League, Champions League, EFL, and Europe’s top leagues.

  • Free Horse Racing Tips – Today’s NAPs, Lucky 15s, ITV Racing previews, and big-race festival insights.

  • Latest Sports News & Previews – Stay ahead with the latest previews, betting stats, and multi-sport coverage from across the world of sport.

  • Free Bets & Bookmaker Offers – Unlock the best free bet deals, enhanced odds, and bookmaker promotions to maximise your betting value.

  • Premium TipMan Subscriptions – Upgrade to Premium and access exclusive betting strategies, expert tips, staking plans, and profit-tracking tools from the TipMan team.

TipMan Premium - The UK's #1 Betting Tip Subscription Service
TipMan Premium - The UK's #1 Betting Tip Subscription Service

Join over 2,300 savvy bettors who are already profiting from expert football and horse racing tips. Tipman Tips offers you unparalleled insights, back...

Join TipMan Premium Today

Take your betting to the next level with TipMan Premium. Trusted by thousands of members for profitable football and horse racing tips every day. Get expert analysis, exclusive offers, and insider strategies proven to boost your winning edge.

  • Daily Football & Racing Tips
  • High-Value Accas & Multiples
  • Track Record of Proven Profit
Join Tipman Premium Now
Want More Daily Tips?
Want more tips? The TipMan team will be updating the website each evening with the next day’s tips across these betting markets:

BET £5 GET £30

#Ad. 18+, GambleAware, Full T&Cs Apply.