Grêmio vs São Paulo Betting Tips & Match Preview – Brazil Série A (16 October 2025)


Ben Beard
Co-founder of Tipman and a well-known tipster with over a decade of profitable tracked results. Featured on the Racing Post NAPs table, Ben brings proven expertise and sharp racing insight.
Published Date: October 16, 2025 4:16 PM


New customers only. 7 days to place qualifying bet of £10 at 1/1 (2.0) to receive 4 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 football, 1 x £10 horse racing & 2 x ...
Grêmio welcome São Paulo in a clash that looks evenly balanced on paper, with both sides showing contrasting styles and recent form lines. Grêmio have picked up 8 points from their last five matches (1.6 points per game), while São Paulo have managed 6 (1.2 points per game).
The hosts have seen Both Teams to Score (BTTS) land in four of their last five games, whereas São Paulo’s recent matches have been tighter, with BTTS landing just once in the same span.
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
Grêmio Win
Reason for Tip
Grêmio to Win
Grêmio have taken 8 points from their last five matches and boast a higher shot conversion rate (12%) compared to São Paulo’s 6%. At home, they average 1.6 points per game and tend to capitalise on limited chances — a clear edge over a São Paulo side who often dominate possession but struggle to convert. Grêmio’s efficiency and home crowd advantage tilt this one their way.
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
Under 2.5 Goals
Reason for Tip
Under 2.5 Goals
Statistically, only 31% of these fixtures produce over 2.5 goals, while both sides average fewer than two combined goals per match in recent form. São Paulo’s away games in particular have been tight, averaging just 1.5 total goals. Expect a structured game where defences stay organised and one or two key moments settle it.
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
Over 3.5 Cards
Reason for Tip
Over 3.5 Cards
The numbers point strongly towards a card-heavy contest — this fixture averages over 5 bookings per game, with a 95% probability of exceeding 2.5 cards. Both sides field aggressive players: Walter Kannemann and Douglas Moreira for Grêmio, plus Luciano da Rocha Neves and Enzo Díaz for São Paulo, who each sit among their club’s most booked players. High intensity and tactical fouls make this a prime card angle.
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
Over 7.5 Corners
Reason for Tip
Over 7.5 Corners
With both teams favouring width and averaging a combined 9.1 corners per match, the stats clearly support a corners play. São Paulo’s crossing volume is high, and Grêmio’s transitional counters often earn set-pieces at the other end. Over 7.5 corners has landed in 70% of previous meetings — well within range for another open, end-to-end encounter.

Join over 2,300 savvy bettors who are already profiting from expert football and horse racing tips. Tipman Tips offers you unparalleled insights, back...
Across the last 25 meetings, these two sides are locked level — 36% wins apiece and 28% draws. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 60% of those fixtures, while Over 2.5 has come in 40%. BTTS has hit in 11 of those 25 (around 44%), suggesting goals are usually shared, but rarely in high numbers.

Use discount code 'HALFPRICE' at the checkout and Join over 2,300 savvy bettors who are already profiting from expert football and horse racing tips. ...
-
Goals & Attack:
Grêmio’s recent games average around 2.2 goals combined, with stronger attacking output at home. São Paulo’s matches are lower-scoring overall, averaging 1.8 goals.
Grêmio typically register around 9.7 shots per match (3.6 on target) compared to São Paulo’s 13 shots (4.6 on target). Despite fewer attempts, Grêmio’s finishing rate is much higher at roughly 12% versus São Paulo’s 6%. -
Possession & Control:
São Paulo tend to dominate possession, averaging 54% across recent games, while Grêmio sit closer to 46%. This suggests São Paulo may dictate tempo, but Grêmio remain dangerous in transitions. -
Discipline:
The card average for this fixture sits at just over 5 per game, with a 95% probability of at least three bookings. Walter Kannemann and Douglas Moreira (Grêmio) and Luciano da Rocha Neves and Enzo Díaz (São Paulo) are all serial offenders. -
Corners:
Expect activity from wide areas — this fixture averages roughly 9 corners per game, with over 6.5 corners landing in 70% of meetings. -
Scoring Patterns:
Goals tend to arrive in the second half, particularly between minutes 41–50 and 81–90 for Grêmio, while São Paulo also show a late-scoring bias.
-
Moderate goal expectancy:
There’s a strong 62% probability for Over 1.5 goals but only around 31% for Over 2.5, suggesting a 1–1 or 2–0 type of match is most plausible. -
Grêmio edge at home:
Home advantage and better conversion rates give Grêmio a marginal edge, even if São Paulo’s possession metrics look stronger on paper. -
BTTS finely balanced:
Recent form makes BTTS a 50/50 call. Grêmio games often feature it; São Paulo’s do not. Market prices reflect that balance. -
Cards are a banker angle:
Consistent high booking rates make Over 2.5 or Over 3.5 cards a solid market to target. -
Corners value:
Over 7.5 corners is supported by both teams’ attacking profiles and recent averages. -
Second-half action:
Late goals are common — “Second Half to have more goals than First Half” looks a strong data-backed play.

Registration required. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min od...
Market | Selection | Reasoning |
---|---|---|
Match Result | Grêmio to Win | Home advantage, better finishing, and stronger recent form. |
Over/Under 1.5 Goals | Over 1.5 Goals | 62% probability and consistent mid-range scoring patterns. |
Over/Under 2.5 Goals | Under 2.5 Goals | Only 31% chance of a high-scoring match. |
Both Teams To Score | No | São Paulo’s low BTTS frequency makes this a value angle. |
Cards | Over 3.5 Total Cards | Strong disciplinary trends from both sides. |
Corners | Over 7.5 Corners | High frequency of 8+ corners historically. |
Goals Half Split | More Goals in 2nd Half | Late scoring patterns common to both teams. |
Goalscorer | Martin Braithwaite (Grêmio) | In form and clinical, 6 goals this season. |
-
Team news could swing markets — late injuries to key attackers or defenders would impact totals and BTTS probabilities.
-
Brazilian Série A matches can be cagey early, with tempo increasing after halftime — a late-goal angle offers value.
-
Always check line-ups before placing goalscorer or card bets.
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
Grêmio Win
Reason for Tip
Grêmio to Win
Grêmio have taken 8 points from their last five matches and boast a higher shot conversion rate (12%) compared to São Paulo’s 6%. At home, they average 1.6 points per game and tend to capitalise on limited chances — a clear edge over a São Paulo side who often dominate possession but struggle to convert. Grêmio’s efficiency and home crowd advantage tilt this one their way.
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
Under 2.5 Goals
Reason for Tip
Under 2.5 Goals
Statistically, only 31% of these fixtures produce over 2.5 goals, while both sides average fewer than two combined goals per match in recent form. São Paulo’s away games in particular have been tight, averaging just 1.5 total goals. Expect a structured game where defences stay organised and one or two key moments settle it.
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
Over 3.5 Cards
Reason for Tip
Over 3.5 Cards
The numbers point strongly towards a card-heavy contest — this fixture averages over 5 bookings per game, with a 95% probability of exceeding 2.5 cards. Both sides field aggressive players: Walter Kannemann and Douglas Moreira for Grêmio, plus Luciano da Rocha Neves and Enzo Díaz for São Paulo, who each sit among their club’s most booked players. High intensity and tactical fouls make this a prime card angle.
Grêmio vs São Paulo - Brazil Serie A
Over 7.5 Corners
Reason for Tip
Over 7.5 Corners
With both teams favouring width and averaging a combined 9.1 corners per match, the stats clearly support a corners play. São Paulo’s crossing volume is high, and Grêmio’s transitional counters often earn set-pieces at the other end. Over 7.5 corners has landed in 70% of previous meetings — well within range for another open, end-to-end encounter.

New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in S...
Grêmio look the value side here. They’re more efficient in front of goal, have home advantage, and match up well against São Paulo’s more possession-based but less clinical approach. Expect a tactical affair, likely decided by a single goal — with a strong chance of cards and corners to keep punters interested.
Predicted Score: Grêmio 2–0 São Paulo
Grêmio to Win
Grêmio have taken 8 points from their last five matches and boast a higher shot conversion rate (12%) compared to São Paulo’s 6%. At home, they average 1.6 points per game and tend to capitalise on limited chances — a clear edge over a São Paulo side who often dominate possession but struggle to convert. Grêmio’s efficiency and home crowd advantage tilt this one their way.
Under 2.5 Goals
Statistically, only 31% of these fixtures produce over 2.5 goals, while both sides average fewer than two combined goals per match in recent form. São Paulo’s away games in particular have been tight, averaging just 1.5 total goals. Expect a structured game where defences stay organised and one or two key moments settle it.
Over 3.5 Cards
The numbers point strongly towards a card-heavy contest — this fixture averages over 5 bookings per game, with a 95% probability of exceeding 2.5 cards. Both sides field aggressive players: Walter Kannemann and Douglas Moreira for Grêmio, plus Luciano da Rocha Neves and Enzo Díaz for São Paulo, who each sit among their club’s most booked players. High intensity and tactical fouls make this a prime card angle.
Over 7.5 Corners
With both teams favouring width and averaging a combined 9.1 corners per match, the stats clearly support a corners play. São Paulo’s crossing volume is high, and Grêmio’s transitional counters often earn set-pieces at the other end. Over 7.5 corners has landed in 70% of previous meetings — well within range for another open, end-to-end encounter.

New UK customers. Min £10 first deposit. Place a bet of £10 at min odds of 2.0 and get £40 in Free Bets within 48 hours. Restrictions apply. Full T...
For live stats, xG data, team trends and in-play insights for this fixture, visit the full stats page below:
👉 View full Grêmio vs São Paulo match stats here
Explore every league, match, and betting angle with our free TipMan Football Stats Software – featuring team form, goal probabilities, BTTS data, cards, corners, and more:
👉 Try the free TipMan Football Stats Software here
Looking to get the best prices, boosted odds, and free bet promotions before placing your bets?
Our dedicated bookmaker offers hub is the best place to find verified UK deals, deposit bonuses, and enhanced specials from trusted betting partners.
🔥 Check out TipMan’s Best Bookmaker Deals & Offers 👉
https://www.tipmantips.com/bookies/
Unlock the top sign-up offers, compare value between bookies, and make sure you’re always betting with the best possible edge.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | Odds subject to change.
-
Free Football Betting Tips – Daily football tips, accumulators, and previews across the Premier League, Champions League, EFL, and Europe’s top leagues.
-
Free Horse Racing Tips – Today’s NAPs, Lucky 15s, ITV Racing previews, and big-race festival insights.
-
Latest Sports News & Previews – Stay ahead with the latest previews, betting stats, and multi-sport coverage from across the world of sport.
-
Free Bets & Bookmaker Offers – Unlock the best free bet deals, enhanced odds, and bookmaker promotions to maximise your betting value.
-
Premium TipMan Subscriptions – Upgrade to Premium and access exclusive betting strategies, expert tips, staking plans, and profit-tracking tools from the TipMan team.

Join over 2,300 savvy bettors who are already profiting from expert football and horse racing tips. Tipman Tips offers you unparalleled insights, back...

Join TipMan Premium Today
Take your betting to the next level with TipMan Premium. Trusted by thousands of members for profitable football and horse racing tips every day. Get expert analysis, exclusive offers, and insider strategies proven to boost your winning edge.
TipMan Football Tips
Want to dive straight into TipMan Premium Or TipMan Elite Value?
The Latest News

PSG v Strasbourg Prediction and Preview | Ligue 1

Free Horse Racing Tips Today – Friday 17th October 2025

Betfred 17/1 Both Teams To Score Accumulator Tips – Friday 17th October

Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Betting Tips & Match Preview – Bundesliga (17 October 2025)

Grêmio vs São Paulo Betting Tips & Match Preview – Brazil Série A (16 October 2025)

New customers only. Free bets credited following registration. Must be wagered 1x at min odds of 1/2 (1.5). 7-day expiry. Stake not returned. Promotio...

18+ New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. £40 in FREE Bets (FB) as £30 in sports bets & a £10 casino bonus (CB). Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10. ...

18+ New Customers. Opt in, deposit and bet £10 on any football (odds 1/1+) within 3 days of sign up. Get 3x£10 Free Bets for set football markets. B...

New Customer offer. Place a min £10 bet on any NFL market at odds of min 1/2 (1.5) and get £50 in free bet builders & multiples. Free bet rewards va...

New customers only. Free bets credited following registration. Must be wagered 1x at min odds of 1/2 (1.5). 7-day expiry. Stake not returned. Promotio...

18+ New Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. 1st Deposit & Bet £/€10+ at min odds 1/2 on Sports within 14 days of account reg ...

18+. New UK & ROI customers only . Certain deposit methods & bet types excl . Min first £10 win or E/W bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds ...

New customers only. To qualify for free bets, the new user must place and settle £20 on easyBet markets. The user must bet on at least 2 different ev...

New Players Only. Sign Up with Bonus Code: NEW30. Bet and Settle 1x£10 Bet on Matchbook Exchange at odds of 2.0 or more. Bet and Settle 1x£10 Bet on...

18+ New customers only. Opt in and bet £10+ (odds 2.00+) on any Sports market within 7 days of registration. No cashout. Get £30 Sports Free Bets fo...

Registration required. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min od...

18+. New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. £40 in FREE Bets (FB) as £30 in sports bets & a £10 casino bonus (CB). Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10....
New customers only. 7 days to place qualifying bet of £10 at 1/1 (2.0) to receive 4 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 football, 1 x £10 horse racing & 2 x ...

18+ New customers only. Opt in and bet up to £40 (min. £20) via mobile or app on any football (odds 1/1+) within 7 days of registration. Get up to ...

New customers only. Football Accas only. 5 legs or more. Odds 1/1 or greater. 5 x £10 bet tokens. Free Bet stakes not included in returns. Free Bets ...

18+ New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. £40 in FREE Bets (FB) as £30 in sports bets & a £10 casino bonus (CB). Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10. ...
New customers only. 7 days to place qualifying bet of £10 at 1/1 (2.0) to receive 4 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 football, 1 x £10 horse racing & 2 x ...

No fluff. No gimmicks. Just solid tips — delivered straight to you.

Use discount code 'HALFPRICE' at the checkout and Join over 2,300 savvy bettors who are already profiting from expert football and horse racing tips. ...

To activate your 50% Back as a Free Bet up to £25 Welcome Offer, simply deposit and bet £10+ on any sports market at minimum odds of evens (2.00) or...

18+ New customers only. Opt in and bet up to £40 (min. £20) via mobile or app on any football (odds 1/1+) within 7 days of registration. Get up to ...

Join a limited group of elite bettors enjoying our most profitable service to date. TipMan Elite uses state-of-the-art, in-house betting software and ...

Join over 2,300 savvy bettors who are already profiting from expert football and horse racing tips. Tipman Tips offers you unparalleled insights, back...

Headline Terms: 18+. New customers only. Place a minimum £40 bet on any selection with minimum odds of Evens (2.00) and receive a 4x£5 Free Bets. Fr...

18+. New Customers Only. Opt in and bet £10 on football (odds 2.00+) within 3 days. No cash-out. Get 3x£10 Free Bets for set markets and a £10 Slot...

*New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. virtuals) at 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accepted in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use o...

New members only. Any new account registration or bets settled on 5 April 2025 are not eligible for this Welcome Offer. £10+ bet on sportsbook (ex. v...

18+ New customers only. Place a £10+ bet at min odds 1/1 (2.0) within 14 days of sign-up. Get £30 in Free Bets, valid for 7 days on selected bets on...

Registration required. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min od...

18+ New customers only. Opt in and bet £10+ (odds 2.00+) on any Sports market within 7 days of registration. No cashout. Get £30 Sports Free Bets fo...

New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits...

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. 18+ www.gambleaware.org. Place a £10 fixed odds bet at minimum odds of 1/2 and get 3 x £10 free fixed odds...

New UK customers. Min £10 first deposit. Place a bet of £10 at min odds of 2.0 and get £40 in Free Bets within 48 hours. Restrictions apply. Full T...

New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in S...

New UK customers. Min £10 first deposit. Place a bet of £10 at min odds of 2.0 and get £40 in Free Bets within 48 hours. Restrictions apply. Full T...

Place a min £10 bet on Sportsbook on odds of min EVS (2.0), get £50 in Free Bet Builders, Accumulators or multiples to use on any sport. Rewards val...

New Customer offer. Place a min £10 bet on Football on odds of min 1.5 (1/2), get £50 in Free Bet Builders after the qualifying bet has been settled...

New customers only. Football Accas only. 5 legs or more. Odds 1/1 or greater. 5 x £10 bet tokens. Free Bet stakes not included in returns. Free Bets ...

New Customer offer - Use promo code YSKAST. Place a min £5 bet on the sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and get £30 in free bets. Free bet rewards...

New customers only. Football BuildABet only. Odds of 1/1 or greater. 5 x £10 Bet tokens. Free Bet stakes not included in returns. Free Bets for Footb...

New customers only. First single & E/W bet only. Odds of 1/1 or greater. 3 X £10 bet tokens. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Free bets exclu...
- Login
- Sign Up