Free Horse Racing Tips Today – Thursday 19th February

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Zoë Jayne Beard

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Free Horse Racing Tips Today – Thursday 19th February

Our free horse racing tips for Thursday 19th February are locked in, with a strong-looking Lucky 15, a confident NAP of the Day, and a big-priced Dark Horse who could easily outrun odds.

We’re targeting value across Thurles, Sedgefield, Huntingdon and Newcastle, with several runners who look well treated on the figures and ideally placed in weaker contests.

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Todays NAP of the Day

19 Feb 17:00 - BetMGM Supports Safer Gambling Novice Stakes (Rider Restricted Race) (GBB Race) - Newcastle
19 Feb 17:00
BetMGM Supports Safer Gambling Novice Stakes (Rider Restricted Race) (GBB Race) - Newcastle

Factual

J: Callum Hutchinson T: A M Balding
Race Winner
10/11

Reason for Tip

Three year old Factual won handily on debut at Salisbury and the form from that race has been franked on numerous occasions since. Had a 7 month break since the win before coming back at Lingfield lto when second of seven. Clearly needed that run out and drops back in class today and should be primed and ready to go for this. Good draw ins tall 3 and there is a very good chance Factual could prove too good for these lot. Should come on plenty still and ceiling nowhere near reached. Balding yard ticking along with plenty of winners and Callum Hutchinson is aboard today which is not a bad booking. Yard have a 31% strikerate here and a 38% strikerate here with Callum Hutchinson as jockey. Major player and looks the winner.

⭐ NAP of the Day

Factual

5.00 Newcastle – 1/1
T: Andrew Balding | J: Callum Hutchinson

Factual looks the standout bet on today’s card and is taken to return to winning ways. A classy debut winner at Salisbury, the form from that race has worked out exceptionally well since, with multiple subsequent winners emerging from behind.

He returned from a seven-month break when finishing a solid second at Lingfield last time out and clearly shaped as though he’d improve significantly for the run. Dropping back in class here, drawn well in stall 3, and representing a Balding yard in excellent form, Factual looks primed to strike.

Callum Hutchinson is a notable booking and the yard’s record at Newcastle is strong, particularly when this jockey is involved. With natural progression expected, Factual looks the one to beat.

NAP rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Todays Dark Horse

19 Feb 15:57 - Join The Midnite Movement Handicap (Rider Restricted Race) (GBBPlus Race) - Newcastle
19 Feb 15:57
Join The Midnite Movement Handicap (Rider Restricted Race) (GBBPlus Race) - Newcastle

Fleurman

J: Gina Mangan T: P Morris
Race Winner
33/2

Reason for Tip

Used to reside with Olly Murphy and last scored over C&D back in 2023 off a mark 12lb higher than this. Form of late has been 54603 and the third last time out was an improvement and positive to see. This race is much warmer today and a rise in class however Fleurman remains very well treated and has been progressive at least since switching yards to the Morris’. Does need to take another step forward today but that isn’t out of the question for this eight year old who does generally run a good race at this track. Gina Mangan gets the ride today and she has an exceptional record here winning 33% of her races. Whilst there is obvious question marks over Fleurman, hard to write him off on this mark at this track. Big price so even a place return would be nice profit and with a bit of luck, could even sneak the win.

🎯 Dark Horse

Fleurman

3.57 Newcastle – 16/1
T: P Morris | J: Gina Mangan

Fleurman is far from a forlorn hope at a big price. A previous C&D winner off a mark 12lb higher, he’s shown signs of returning to form since switching yards and ran an encouraging third last time out.

This is a tougher race, but his current mark gives him a real shout, especially with Gina Mangan aboard, who boasts an excellent record at Newcastle. At 16/1, he’s capable of sneaking into the places or better.

Todays Lucky 15

19 Feb 13:32 - Racing Again 5th March Handicap Chase - Thurles
19 Feb 13:32
Racing Again 5th March Handicap Chase - Thurles

Cappucino

J: Sean Flanagan T: Liz Doyle
Race Winner
3/1

Reason for Tip

Was never really threatening last year and form reads 085B2 however the second lto on New Years Day showed a resurgence from this seven year old and he is taken to continue that today. Was only behind Rockbrook that time and is now 10lb better off with that horse and so looks very well treated for this handicap debut over fences. Still rather unexposed in this discipline and this isn’t a particularly strong race. Will be fine over this trip and the soft ground is favourable. Decent jockey booking in Sean Flanagan and he knows how to get the job done at this course. Big chance for Cappucino today and would be surprised if he can’t convert this.

19 Feb 13:58 - Canine Premier Flex Plus Joint Supplement Handicap Chase (GBB Race) - Sedgefield
19 Feb 13:58
Canine Premier Flex Plus Joint Supplement Handicap Chase (GBB Race) - Sedgefield

Roysse

J: Kielan Woods T: B Pauling
Race Winner
5/2

Reason for Tip

Seven year old Roysse had decent form over hurdles and has since made first three chase starts. Has been progressive in this sphere and form over the fences reads 793. Only beaten about 8 lengths into third in a warm Novice at Aintree on Boxing Day lto and this represents a much easier task than that race. Likely to see further improvement today on ideal ground and this is his usual trip. Represents a strong yard who are having a brilliant year and has a good booking in Kielan Woods who has a fantastic record at Sedgefield. Roysse has made a fair trek north for this and looks very likely to come away with the win.

19 Feb 15:26 - Irish Thoroughbred Marketing At Huntingdon Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle - Huntingdon
19 Feb 15:26
Irish Thoroughbred Marketing At Huntingdon Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle - Huntingdon

For Old Times Sake

J: R P McLernon T: N P Mulholland
Race Winner
3/1

Reason for Tip

Form of 878 isn’t overly inspiring but they were deeper races than this and this is a rather weak entry point for this five year olds handicap debut. Should be capable of much better now handicapping and we are likely to see a much better result than previous runs. The heavy ground that is forecast should not be a negative and this trip should pose no issues as ran over this lto. Yard is enjoying a good couple of months and that bodes well for this youngster. Richie McLernon gets the ride. Lots of question marks over most of this field and whilst For Old Times Sake does have risks attached, should be much better treated now handicapping and hard to ignore on handicap debut in this line up.

19 Feb 19:00 - Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Classified Stakes (Rider Restricted Race) (Div 2) - Newcastle
19 Feb 19:00
Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Classified Stakes (Rider Restricted Race) (Div 2) - Newcastle

Sedgemoor

J: Connor Planas T: J Butler
Race Winner
9/2

Reason for Tip

Five year old Sedgemoor has been in a downwards spiral since being off a peak mark of 77 and now runs 47 and this is his first 0-50 race and whilst the inconsistency and disappointing runs is hard to ignore, so is the mark and standard of this race. He is much better than this mark and the stable have reached for blinkers today which could make a big difference to this five year old. Very well drawn in stall 3 and will be able to take up a prominent position which should be a benefit. This race won’t take much winning and Sedgemoor is taken to come out the victor in this. Connor is riding very well at the moment and is a good booking for this youngster. Big chance today.

🍀 Lucky 15 Tips Today

Cappucino

1.32 Thurles – 5/2
T: Liz Doyle | J: Sean Flanagan

Cappucino showed a clear resurgence when finishing second on New Year’s Day and now looks extremely well treated for his handicap chase debut. He’s 10lb better off with Rockbrook from that run and remains unexposed over fences.

This is not a strong race, the ground and trip suit, and Sean Flanagan is a big positive in the saddle. Major player.


Roysse

1.58 Sedgefield – 5/2
T: Ben Pauling | J: Kielan Woods

Roysse has progressed nicely since switching to fences and his third in a warm Aintree novice last time out reads well in this context. This represents a much easier assignment and further improvement is expected.

The Pauling–Woods combination is lethal at Sedgefield and this trip and ground are ideal. Very strong chance.


For Old Times Sake

3.26 Huntingdon – 3/1
T: N P Mulholland | J: R P McLernon

Handicap debutants from this yard always demand respect and this looks a weak enough race for For Old Times Sake to step forward. Previous runs came in stronger company and today’s conditions should suit.

With many rivals carrying doubts, this five-year-old could easily outperform expectations now handicapping. Worth including.


Sedgemoor

7.00 Newcastle – 9/2
T: J Butler | J: Connor Planas

Sedgemoor now finds himself running off a mark of 47 and drops into his first 0–50 handicap. Blinkers are applied for the first time and he’s very well drawn in stall 3, likely to get a prominent position.

The quality of this race is low and off this mark, Sedgemoor is simply too well treated to ignore. Big chance to capitalise.

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Tipmans's Final Word

Thursday’s racing offers plenty of opportunity, with Factual standing out as a confident NAP, a solid Lucky 15 built around well-treated runners, and a Dark Horse who looks overpriced based on past course form.

As always, bet responsibly, play to your stakes, and enjoy the racing.

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