Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction and 8/1 Bet Builder | Carabao Cup

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Lucio Pollice

Football fanatic and data-driven tipster who heads up Tipman’s Daily Doubles, as well as key free and premium football tips. With over two years of profitable tracked results, he blends stats and instinct to deliver consistent value for punters.

Published Date: January 12, 2026 9:34 PM

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Match Info

Competition: Carabao Cup (Semi-Final, First Leg)
Date: 13 January 2026
Kick-off: 20:00 (UK)
Venue: St James’ Park

Newcastle United continue their Carabao Cup title defence with a huge home test against Manchester City, who are chasing yet another piece of domestic silverware and edging closer to Liverpool’s all-time EFL Cup record. St. James’ Park has become a fortress this season, but few visitors challenge that status quite like Pep Guardiola’s side.

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Teams Form and Stats

Newcastle arrive with momentum but not without fatigue. Their FA Cup tie against Bournemouth went the full distance, eventually being settled on penalties. Even so, the win extended the Magpies’ impressive run to four consecutive victories, and more importantly, strengthened their exceptional home form. Newcastle have won 11 of their last 13 matches at home (D2), scoring freely and unsettling some of the league’s strongest sides. That includes their Premier League win over City earlier this season, and earlier EFL Cup victories over Tottenham and Fulham at St. James’ Park.

Manchester City, meanwhile, enter this first leg in ruthless cup form. The eight-time winners have coasted through the Carabao Cup so far, winning all three ties by a two-goal margin, including a smooth 2-0 dispatching of Brentford in the previous round. Their weekend 10–1 demolition of Exeter City was an outlier in scoreline but not in performance; City’s depth and cup focus were on full display. Away from home they remain extremely competitive too, with four wins and a draw from their last five competitive away games.

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Head-to-Head History

Newcastle’s league win earlier this season was an exception rather than the rule. Across the last 16 meetings, City have taken control of the rivalry: 11 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses. City have also scored in 19 of the last 21 away H2Hs, making them a reliable threat at St. James’ Park.

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Predicted Starting XI

Newcastle United (4-3-3)

Pope; Miley, Botman, Thiaw, Hall; Tonali, Woltemade, Bruno Guimarães; Joelinton, Barnes, Gordon

Manchester City (4-3-2-1)

Donnarumma; Aké, Khusanov, Silva, Nunes; Nico, Reijnders, Foden; Cherki; Haaland

Game prediction and Correct Score

Newcastle 1–2 Manchester City
A competitive tie, but City’s depth and away efficiency give them the narrow edge heading into the second leg.

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TipMan Bet Builder and Reasoning

Designed around the matchup trends, player profiles and statistical likelihoods.

1. Man City Win or Draw (Double Chance)

City are unbeaten in 15 of the last 16 H2Hs and are strong travellers in cup competitions.

2. Over 1.5 Match Goals

Newcastle have scored 2+ goals in 10 of their last 11 home matches; City rarely leave without scoring.

3. Harvey Barnes – 1+ Shot on Target

In superb home form and already has a brace against City this season.

4. Tijjani Reijnders – 1+ Shot on Target

A consistent shooter from midfield, especially from distance.

5. Joelinton – 1+ Foul Committed

Aggressive presser who regularly commits tactical fouls in big matches.

6. Matheus Nunes – 1+ Foul Committed

Known for tight marking and midfield duels; high foul output historically.

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