How to Find Value Bets: The Key to Beating the Bookies

1403

Ben Beard

Co-founder of Tipman and a well-known tipster with over a decade of profitable tracked results. Featured on the Racing Post NAPs table, Ben brings proven expertise and sharp racing insight.

Published Date: June 26, 2025 8:44 PM

How to find Value Bets

If you want to make long-term profit from betting, learning how to find value bets is essential.

It’s not about picking winners. It’s about spotting when the odds are bigger than they should be. This guide shows you exactly how to identify value, how we do it at Tipman, and how you can use the same approach to beat the bookies more often.

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What is a Value Bet?

A value bet is a selection where the odds are bigger than the true probability of it happening.

For example, if something has a genuine 50% chance of landing, the fair odds should be evens (2.00). If you’re being offered 2.50 by a bookie, you’ve found value.

It doesn’t matter if the bet wins or not. If the price was wrong and in your favour, it’s a good bet. That’s the mindset of professional punters and betting syndicates.

Related Value Betting Guides

Looking for sport-specific value betting tips?

→ Where to find Value Betting Tips?
→ How to Spot Value in Football Betting
→ Value Bets in Horse Racing
→ Bet Builder Value Betting Guide

How to Spot Value Bets

You can’t spot value by looking at the fixture list or glancing at the odds.

You need a way to assess the true chance of an outcome, then compare that to the price offered.

That could be:

  • Your own ratings or research

  • A sharp model or algorithm

  • Following trusted tipsters who specialise in value

If your source of truth is better than the bookies’, you’ll find value and beat the market long-term.

Why Bookies Still Miss Prices

Bookmakers are good, but they’re not perfect.

Prices are often set by algorithms and adjusted by weight of money. If a market is quiet, niche, or priced in a rush, mistakes happen.

And in big markets, they sometimes set prices low on popular outcomes to exploit public money. This creates value elsewhere if you know where to look.

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"Excellent tips. Keep it going Tipman. No better tipsters around..."
"I have joined Tipman services over 1 month and 5..."
"Although the service you lads provide is quality I kind..."
"Good tips"
"Without doubt the best tipping service out there 100% recommend"
"Great bunch of tipsters with a great consistent profit"
"So far so good!"
"Been with Tipman Tips for years, good profitable tipsters."
"Not sure yet, have't been with them long enough, but..."
"Banging tips make more than the subscription every month don’t..."
Why Most Punters Never See Value

Most people bet for fun. They back what they want to happen or what feels likely, not what’s overpriced.

Bookies know this. That’s why they stay profitable.

To win, you need to think differently. Be cold, rational and price-led.

💡 Tip: Think in Percentages

Forget win/loss for a second.

If you backed 10 bets at 3/1 that had a 33% chance of winning, you’d still be profitable long-term – even if you lost most of them.

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FAQs

What does value mean in betting?
Value means the odds you’re getting are bigger than the true likelihood of the event happening.

Can a losing bet be a value bet?
Yes. A value bet doesn’t mean it has to win – just that the price was wrong in your favour.

How do I know if a price is wrong?
You need a method to estimate the true chance of an outcome. That could be data models, expert analysis or following proven tipsters.

Is value betting only for pros?
No. Anyone can do it with the right mindset and by trusting value-driven tips.

Do Tipman offer value tips?
Yes. Every tip we post is based on finding value – not just guesswork or gut feeling.

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