Aston Villa v Burnley Bet Builder Tips & Predictions – Premier League

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Fraser Bricknell

Tipman founder, lifelong football fan and stats-driven tipster with seven years of winning experience.

Published Date: October 4, 2025 10:12 PM

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Aston Villa v Burnley – Match Info

Date: Sunday 5 October 2025
Kick-off: 2pm
Competition: Premier League
Venue: Villa Park

Aston Villa v Burnley Form & Tactics

Aston Villa have finally shown signs of improvement after a slow start. Unai Emery’s side have won three matches in a row in all competitions, including a 3-1 victory over Fulham in the Premier League and two Europa League wins. That run has restored some confidence after a goalless spell earlier in the season.

Villa’s main concern remains their attacking output. They rank near the bottom of the Premier League for expected goals and shots on target, showing that creativity in the final third still needs work. Defensively they’ve also been below their usual standards, with their expected goals against figure among the league’s highest.

Burnley, meanwhile, have collected just one league win this season — a 2-0 home victory over Sunderland — and all four of their points have come at Turf Moor. Away from home they’ve struggled badly, conceding heavily against top-half sides. Their xG against is the worst in the division and they also rank lowest for possession and xG created, underlining how difficult life has been for them in the top flight.

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Aston Villa v Burnley Formation & Team News

Unai Emery has been using a 4-2-3-1 system with Ollie Watkins leading the line and support from Emiliano Buendia and Morgan Rogers. John McGinn and Boubacar Kamara anchor midfield, providing stability and balance. Amadou Onana remains sidelined, but there are no new injury concerns following the Europa League win over Feyenoord.

Scott Parker is expected to revert to a 4-3-3 for Burnley after using a back five against Manchester City. Jaidon Anthony will again provide direct running on the wing, with Lyle Foster starting up front. Jordan Beyer, Connor Roberts and Zeki Amdouni remain unavailable.

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Key Match Stats

Aston Villa have scored six goals across their last three matches
Burnley are conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game in the Premier League
Villa have won 10 of their last 12 competitive home games (D1, L1)
Villa scored exactly three goals in three of the last four meetings between the sides

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Aston Villa v Burnley Bet Builder Tips

Aston Villa to Win

Villa won both Premier League meetings last season, 3-1 at Turf Moor and 3-2 at Villa Park. They’ve also won 10 of their last 12 home games in all competitions and come into this fixture unbeaten in five (excluding penalties). Burnley have failed to win any of their last nine away matches.

Under 3.5 Goals

Villa’s league games have been tight, with 10 goals scored across six matches. Burnley’s away fixtures average 3.7 goals per game, but most of their matches stay below the 3.5 line. Neither side rank highly for big chances created, and both managers will prioritise structure and control.

Over 7.5 Corners

Villa average just over five corners per match this season and Burnley average nearly three. Both sides attack through the flanks — Villa through Guessand and Rogers, Burnley through Anthony and Foster — and all three of the most recent head-to-heads produced at least eight corners.

Over 2.5 Cards

Villa average 1.7 yellow cards per Premier League match, Burnley 1.8. The last league meeting between the sides featured five bookings. Both teams press aggressively and use full-backs high up the pitch, which typically leads to fouls in transition.

Ollie Watkins – 1+ Shot on Target

Watkins leads Villa for shots on target this season and found the net against Fulham last weekend. He’s managed at least one effort on target in four of his last five Premier League appearances and remains Villa’s main source of goals.

Matty Cash – 1+ Foul

Cash has committed at least one foul in five of his six league appearances this season and has already picked up two bookings. His attacking role on the right often leaves him exposed to recovery tackles, particularly against quick wide players like Anthony.

Josh Cullen – 1+ Foul

Cullen operates as Burnley’s holding midfielder and averages just under one foul per 90 minutes. With Villa likely to dominate possession, he’ll be heavily involved in challenges on McGinn and Buendia in central areas.

Lyle Foster – 1+ Foul

Foster has committed 10 fouls in six league games this season, more than any other Burnley player. As a lone striker who presses from the front, he frequently concedes fouls when challenging for long balls or trying to regain possession.

Boubacar Kamara – 1+ Foul

Kamara averages around one foul per game and has one booking in four league appearances. Sitting deepest in Villa’s midfield, he’s often responsible for halting counter-attacks and tactical fouls when possession breaks down.

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Tipman Match Prediction

Villa are in far better form and have home advantage, while Burnley continue to leak goals away from Turf Moor. Expect Villa to control possession, rack up corners through wide play and eventually take the points in a match featuring a few cards and set-piece chances.

Predicted Score: Aston Villa 2–0 Burnley

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Aston Villa v Burnley FAQs

What time does Aston Villa v Burnley kick off?
The match kicks off at 2pm (UK time) on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Villa Park.

Where can I watch Aston Villa v Burnley?
The game will be shown live in the UK on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event. Streaming is available through the Sky Go app for subscribers.

Who is expected to win Aston Villa v Burnley?
Aston Villa are favourites based on recent form and home advantage. Villa have won 10 of their last 12 competitive matches at Villa Park.

What is the recent head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Burnley?
Villa won both Premier League meetings last season — 3-1 at Turf Moor and 3-2 at Villa Park — and are unbeaten in the last three head-to-heads.

What are the main stats for this match?
Villa have scored six goals across their last three matches, while Burnley have conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game this season.

What are Tipman’s best Bet Builder selections for Aston Villa v Burnley?
Villa to Win, Under 3.5 Goals, Over 7.5 Corners, Over 2.5 Cards, Watkins 1+ Shot on Target, Cash 1+ Foul, Cullen 1+ Foul, Foster 1+ Foul, Kamara 1+ Foul.

Who are the key players to watch?
Ollie Watkins remains Villa’s main attacking threat, while Lyle Foster leads Burnley in fouls committed and is key to their pressing game.

What is Tipman’s Aston Villa v Burnley prediction?
Tipman expects Villa to control the match and extend their unbeaten run. Predicted score: Aston Villa 2–0 Burnley.

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