Man City vs Brighton Prediction and 12/1 Bet Builder | Premier League
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Published Date: January 6, 2026 7:30 PM
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Fixture: Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion
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Competition: Premier League
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Date: Wednesday, 7 January 2026
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Kick-off: 19:30 (UK)
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Venue: Etihad Stadium
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Manchester City
Manchester City return to the Etihad under slight pressure after seeing a stoppage-time equaliser deny them maximum points against Chelsea. That result was notable not for the dropped points alone, but because it ended a long home sequence of converting winning positions into victories. Even so, City’s home numbers remain dominant, with Guardiola’s side still boasting one of the strongest xG outputs in the league on their own patch.
Historically, this fixture strongly favours City. They remain unbeaten in 15 home league meetings with Brighton, winning the majority by multiple goals. City’s midweek record is also imposing, particularly in home matches where tempo and ball control tend to overwhelm visiting sides.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton arrive with renewed confidence after a comfortable win over Burnley, snapping a prolonged winless run. That result lifted pressure off Fabian Hürzeler, but it does little to disguise Brighton’s ongoing away-day issues. The Seagulls have struggled to convert performances into points on the road, managing only two away wins all season.
Defensively, Brighton have shown a worrying trend away from home, conceding exactly twice in each of their last three away league matches. While they remain capable of posing problems in transition, sustained pressure against elite possession sides has consistently exposed their back line.
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Head-to-Head
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Man City unbeaten in 15 home league games vs Brighton
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Brighton have never won at the Etihad in the Premier League
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Last league meeting at the Etihad ended 2-2, breaking City’s previous winning streak in this fixture
Key Players to Watch
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Tijjani Reijnders (Man City): Arriving late into advanced areas, he has become increasingly involved in City’s attacking phases, recently scoring early in matches and shooting frequently from central zones.
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Georginio Rutter (Brighton): Brighton’s most direct ball-carrier, Rutter is heavily involved in shot creation, especially when Brighton counter or chase the game.
Manchester City (4-1-4-1)
Donnarumma; Aké, Khusanov, Nunes; Rodri; O’Reilly, Reijnders, Foden, Cherki; Doku; Haaland
Brighton & Hove Albion (4-2-3-1)
Verbruggen; Veltman, Van Hecke, Dunk, Kadioglu; Ayari, Hinshelwood; Mitoma, Rutter, De Cuyper; Gomez
Manchester City should reassert control at home and respond positively after their latest setback. Brighton may create moments, but sustaining resistance for 90 minutes looks unlikely.
Correct score lean: Man City 3-1 Brighton
Best angle: Man City win + Over 2.5 goals
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✅ Man City to Win
City’s home dominance, historical edge in this fixture, and superior squad depth make them strong favourites to take all three points.
✅ Over 2.5 Goals
The combined xG profile of this matchup points toward a high-scoring contest. City’s attacking volume at home, coupled with Brighton’s tendency to concede on the road, supports multiple goals.
✅ Over 8.5 Corners
City’s territorial control typically forces opponents deep, driving corner counts upward. Brighton’s willingness to defend wide areas also contributes to set-piece volume.
✅ Reijnders 1+ Shot on Target
Reijnders’ role between the lines and late box arrivals give him regular shooting opportunities, particularly in matches where City dominate possession.
✅ Rutter 2+ Shots
Brighton rely heavily on Rutter to progress the ball and finish moves. Even in defeat, he tends to accumulate shots through dribbles and transitions.
✅ Dunk 1+ Foul
As Brighton absorb pressure, Dunk is frequently drawn into physical duels with Haaland and City’s runners, making at least one foul a realistic outcome.
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