AC Milan vs Pisa Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview – Serie A (24 October 2025)

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Ben Beard

Co-founder of Tipman and a well-known tipster with over a decade of profitable tracked results. Featured on the Racing Post NAPs table, Ben brings proven expertise and sharp racing insight.

Published Date: October 24, 2025 11:10 AM

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⚽ Match Overview

AC Milan welcome Pisa to the San Siro in a mismatch on paper — a top-tier powerhouse against a newly promoted side still adapting to life in Serie A. Milan come into this one with momentum, unbeaten in five and showing balance in both attack and defence. Pisa, meanwhile, have yet to record an away victory this season and sit deep in the relegation battle.

Milan have scored in nine consecutive home matches, averaging 2.1 goals per game, while Pisa have conceded in all but one of their last ten outings. The difference in class, squad depth, and consistency should make this a straightforward night for the hosts.

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📊 Key Statistical Insights

Goals & Scoring:
AC Milan’s fixtures average 2.6 total goals, with Over 1.5 Goals landing in 87% of their matches. Pisa’s games average 2.1 goals, though they’ve scored in only 40% of away fixtures.
Defensive Form:
Milan have conceded just 0.8 goals per home game this season. Pisa concede an average of 1.9 goals per away match — one of the highest in the division.
Both Teams To Score (BTTS):
BTTS has landed in 42% of Milan’s matches and 38% of Pisa’s — below the league average. The trend leans towards a home win to nil.
Discipline:
Milan average 2.1 cards per match, Pisa 2.5, giving a combined expectation of around 4.6 total cards — moderate by Serie A standards.
Expected Goals (xG):
- AC Milan xG per 90: 2.03
- Pisa xG per 90: 0.71
- Pisa xGA (against): 1.88

These numbers underline how one-sided this could become if Milan convert their chances efficiently.

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💡 Bet Builder Angles

Here are the most data-supported selections for your builder:

1️⃣ AC Milan to Win
Milan have won four of their last five league games and dominate the metrics for both possession and chance creation. Pisa have taken just one point from their last five away fixtures.

2️⃣ Over 1.5 Goals in the Match
With Milan averaging 2+ goals per game and Pisa conceding freely, this looks a banker leg. Even if the visitors sit deep, Milan’s attacking rotation should break them down multiple times.

3️⃣ Both Teams To Score – No
The numbers strongly favour Milan keeping a clean sheet. Pisa’s attacking output away from home has been limited to 0.6 goals per 90, and they rarely create more than one big chance per match.

4️⃣ Anytime Goalscorer – Rafael Leão (AC Milan)
Leão continues to lead Milan’s front line, averaging 0.82 xG per 90 and registering a shot on target in nearly every appearance this season. Against Pisa’s fragile back four, he’s the standout goalscorer option.

5️⃣ Under 4.5 Total Cards
This fixture profile suggests a relatively controlled match. Milan tend to manage games professionally when leading, while Pisa’s fouls are mostly in midfield rather than cynical challenges.

🧠 TipMan Recommended Bet Builder

5-Leg Bet Builder:

✅ AC Milan to Win
✅ Over 1.5 Goals
✅ Both Teams To Score – No
✅ Rafael Leão to Score Anytime
✅ Under 4.5 Cards

This builder combines Milan’s attacking superiority with defensive reliability, maintaining strong statistical grounding while keeping the line realistic for odds compounding.

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⚠️ Betting Notes

Expect Milan to control territory and possession from the outset.
Pisa’s low goal conversion means backing a Milan clean sheet carries strong EV.
Corners and card markets may stay moderate given the hosts’ dominance and lower foul counts when ahead.
Always verify team news and line-ups before finalising bet-builder legs.

📈 Full Match Stats & TipMan Tools

For full xG data, player form metrics, and team trends for this fixture, view the official stats page:
👉 AC Milan vs Pisa Match Stats

Explore every Serie A team and fixture with the free TipMan Football Stats Software — covering goals, cards, corners, and expected value data across all leagues:
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