Lazio vs Roma: Preview, Predictions & Stats | Serie A 2025

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Lucio Pollice

Football fanatic and data-driven tipster who heads up Tipman’s Daily Doubles, as well as key free and premium football tips. With over two years of profitable tracked results, he blends stats and instinct to deliver consistent value for punters.

Published Date: September 21, 2025 8:51 AM

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Match preview of the Serie A Derby della Capitale

  • Competition: Serie A 2025/26

  • Date: Sunday, 21 September 2025

  • Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome

  • Kick-off: 19:45 UK time

This will be the 163rd Derby della Capitale in Serie A history. Lazio have recorded 42 wins and 62 draws, while Roma lead with 58 victories. No fixture in Serie A has ended level more times. Lazio are unbeaten in their last eight home derbies against Roma (4 wins, 4 draws), the longest such run in club history.

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Current Form and recent matches

Lazio
The Biancocelesti lost 1–0 away to Sassuolo last weekend, leaving them with just one win from their opening three league matches. Another defeat here would make it three losses in their first four Serie A fixtures for only the third time in 50 years. At home, however, they remain difficult to beat, with just one loss in their last nine league outings at the Olimpico (2 wins, 6 draws).

Roma
Roma also slipped up last week, losing 1–0 at this same stadium against Torino. That was their third consecutive Serie A match to end 1–0 (two wins, one defeat). They risk consecutive league defeats for the first time since December 2024, but confidence is boosted by a remarkable record in 2025: 55 points earned and 13 clean sheets in 23 matches, making them one of the toughest defensive units across Europe.

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Our Prediction

This Derby della Capitale has all the hallmarks of another tight, tense battle. Lazio are difficult to beat at home, while Roma are built on defensive solidity. Given the balance of form and history, the likely outcome is a draw.

Predicted score: Lazio 1–1 Roma

Draw
History suggests stalemate: this is Serie A’s most drawn fixture, and Lazio’s last 8 home derbies without defeat include 4 draws. With Roma’s solid defence and Lazio’s mixed form, another even contest looks the most probable outcome.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Despite Roma’s clean sheets in 2025, derbies often bring goals from both sides. Lazio create chances at the Olimpico, while Roma still carry threats through Soulé and set pieces. Both sides finding the net aligns with recent trends.

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Key Stats

  • Lazio have not conceded a first-half goal this Serie A season.

  • Six of their last 12 league home matches finished 1–1.

  • Nine of Roma’s last 14 league games ended with exactly one goal scored.

  • Roma have seen a goal between the 50th and 60th minute in each of their last five Serie A matches.

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Key Players & Absences

  • Boulaye Dia (Lazio): Has scored in four derbies and tends to strike late — his last four league goals were all the final goals in those matches.

  • Matías Soulé (Roma): Found the net in the April derby and could become only the third Roma player since 1995 to score in his first two derbies.

  • Absentees: Lazio are without Manuel Lazzari, while Roma will miss Paulo Dybala due to a muscle injury. Nicolò Rovella and Valentín Castellanos are doubtful for Lazio.

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