UFC 318 Holloway vs Poirier 3, Betting Tips, Predictions & Previews
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Ben Beard
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Published Date: July 19, 2025 12:01 PM
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📅 Event Overview
Date: Saturday, July 19, 2025
Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
🕕 Schedule & UK Times
| Segment | CT (US) | UK (BST) |
|---|---|---|
| Doors open | 4:00 pm | 10:00 pm |
| Early Prelims | 5:00 pm | 11:00 pm |
| Prelims | 7:00 pm | 1:00 am (Sunday) |
| Main Card | 9:00 pm | 3:00 am (Sunday) |
| Main Event ETA | ~10:00 pm | ~4:00 am BST |
🏆 Main Event: Holloway vs. Poirier III
Max Holloway (27‑8‑0) vs. Dustin Poirier (30‑9‑0)
Trilogy bout – Poirier won their previous two meetings (2012, 2019)
BMF Title on the line
Poirier’s retirement fight – taking place in his home state of Louisiana
Odds: Holloway slight favourite at 8/11 ; Poirier available at 11/10
Head‑to‑Head Notes:
Poirier: Power striker with 16 KOs, sharp boxing and excellent counter game
Holloway: Volume king with endless cardio, smart movement, and elite striking accuracy
Main Card (PPV)
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier (BMF Title – LW)
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov (MW)
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez (WW)
Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull (FW)
Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber (LW)
Prelims
Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira (BW)
Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen (MW)
Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (WW)
Ateba Gautier vs. Robert Valentin (MW)
Early Prelims
Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov (WW)
Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio (LHW)
Ryan Spann vs. Łukasz Brzeski (HW)
Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey (FLW)
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🥊 Holloway vs Poirier 3 - UFC 318
Poirier Submission
Reason for Tip
Dustin Poirier has long been one of the most dangerous grapplers in the lightweight division, and although his striking often takes the spotlight, the submission route looks a very live angle here. He already holds a submission win over Holloway from their first meeting in 2012 and has eight career tapouts to his name. Max has never been stopped via strikes, but his one career submission loss came to Poirier — a detail that could resurface if the Diamond drags him into deeper waters. Given Holloway’s volume style can leave him open to counters and clinch entanglements, this could be the moment where Poirier rolls back the years and catches a reactive choke or neck crank in the later rounds. At current odds, the submission angle is a juicy high-risk, high-reward play Tipman sees as a sharp value angle for bettors chasing upside.
🥊 Holloway vs Poirier 3 - UFC 318
Poirier Decision
Reason for Tip
For those seeking a more measured approach, Poirier by decision looks the smarter way to side with the Diamond. Fighting in his home state of Louisiana in what could be his retirement bout, expect a tactical and emotionally-charged performance from one of MMA’s most seasoned operators. He holds a 2–0 edge over Holloway in previous bouts and has the power, ring control, and octagon IQ to land the cleaner, more telling moments across five rounds. Max is notoriously durable and rarely even hurt, making a finish unlikely — but Poirier has edged out plenty of elite opponents on the cards before, including Max himself in 2019. With Tipman’s models suggesting this goes the full five, the value sits firmly with a Poirier decision at enhanced odds, particularly if he sets the early pace and controls the exchanges. Smart, steady, and very live.
🥊 Costa vs Kopylov - UFC 318
Kopylov Decision
Reason for Tip
Roman Kopylov has quietly become one of the most efficient strikers in the UFC’s middleweight ranks, and this looks a prime opportunity for him to outpoint a fading Paulo Costa over three rounds. The Russian southpaw comes in with momentum, winning five of his last six, and doing so with a mix of calm precision, smart movement, and sharp counter work. Costa, by contrast, has looked one-paced and hesitant in recent outings, losing four of his last five and showing little of the aggression that once made him a title contender. Kopylov’s style is well-suited to expose that. He boasts a significant reach advantage and the ability to manage range, landing 50% of his strikes while absorbing less than Costa, who tends to march forward with minimal head movement and leaves himself open. While the KO threat is always live, Tipman sees this one playing out over the distance, with Kopylov keeping it clean, disciplined, and doing more than enough on the cards. At 2/1 or better, it’s a tidy play with a solid data-driven edge.
🥊 Ige vs "Pitbull" Freire - UFC 318
Fiere Decision
Reason for Tip
Patricio “Pitbull” Freire brings a wealth of experience into this featherweight clash, and a measured, tactical decision win looks the most realistic path for the Bellator icon. While his UFC debut didn’t go to plan, it came up at short notice and a weight class above. This return to featherweight feels far better timed. Ige is a tough, durable opponent, but he’s struggled to break through against elite-level names, and Freire has the veteran nous to edge him in a close three-rounder. Expect Pitbull to mix in low kicks, counter shots, and occasional level changes to disrupt Ige’s rhythm, with neither fighter likely to take major risks. Ige’s chin has held up well across 11 UFC decisions, and Freire isn’t the most aggressive finisher at this stage of his career, so the cards look the most likely route. With Tipman leaning toward a cage-smart performance from the Brazilian, the decision angle appeals as the standout value in this evenly matched bout.
Betting Angle: Dustin Poirier via Submission (14/1)
Market: Method of Victory
Dustin Poirier has long been one of the most dangerous grapplers in the lightweight division, and although his striking often takes the spotlight, the submission route looks a very live angle here. He already holds a submission win over Holloway from their first meeting in 2012 and has eight career tapouts to his name. Max has never been stopped via strikes, but his one career submission loss came to Poirier — a detail that could resurface if the Diamond drags him into deeper waters. Given Holloway’s volume style can leave him open to counters and clinch entanglements, this could be the moment where Poirier rolls back the years and catches a reactive choke or neck crank in the later rounds. At current odds, the submission angle is a juicy high-risk, high-reward play Tipman sees as a sharp value angle for bettors chasing upside.
Betting Angle: Dustin Poirier via Decision (3/1+)
Market: Method of Victory
For those seeking a more measured approach, Poirier by decision looks the smarter way to side with the Diamond. Fighting in his home state of Louisiana in what could be his retirement bout, expect a tactical and emotionally-charged performance from one of MMA’s most seasoned operators. He holds a 2–0 edge over Holloway in previous bouts and has the power, ring control, and octagon IQ to land the cleaner, more telling moments across five rounds. Max is notoriously durable and rarely even hurt, making a finish unlikely — but Poirier has edged out plenty of elite opponents on the cards before, including Max himself in 2019. With Tipman’s models suggesting this goes the full five, the value sits firmly with a Poirier decision at enhanced odds, particularly if he sets the early pace and controls the exchanges. Smart, steady, and very live.
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Betting Angle: Roman Kopylov via Decision (around 21/20)
Market: Method of Victory
Roman Kopylov has quietly become one of the most efficient strikers in the UFC’s middleweight ranks, and this looks a prime opportunity for him to outpoint a fading Paulo Costa over three rounds. The Russian southpaw comes in with momentum, winning five of his last six, and doing so with a mix of calm precision, smart movement, and sharp counter work. Costa, by contrast, has looked one-paced and hesitant in recent outings, losing four of his last five and showing little of the aggression that once made him a title contender. Kopylov’s style is well-suited to expose that. He boasts a significant reach advantage and the ability to manage range, landing 50% of his strikes while absorbing less than Costa, who tends to march forward with minimal head movement and leaves himself open. While the KO threat is always live, Tipman sees this one playing out over the distance, with Kopylov keeping it clean, disciplined, and doing more than enough on the cards. At 2/1 or better, it’s a tidy play with a solid data-driven edge.
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Betting Angle: Patricio Freire via Decision (best priced around 11/4)
Market: Method of Victory
Patricio “Pitbull” Freire brings a wealth of experience into this featherweight clash, and a measured, tactical decision win looks the most realistic path for the Bellator icon. While his UFC debut didn’t go to plan, it came up at short notice and a weight class above. This return to featherweight feels far better timed. Ige is a tough, durable opponent, but he’s struggled to break through against elite-level names, and Freire has the veteran nous to edge him in a close three-rounder. Expect Pitbull to mix in low kicks, counter shots, and occasional level changes to disrupt Ige’s rhythm, with neither fighter likely to take major risks. Ige’s chin has held up well across 11 UFC decisions, and Freire isn’t the most aggressive finisher at this stage of his career, so the cards look the most likely route. With Tipman leaning toward a cage-smart performance from the Brazilian, the decision angle appeals as the standout value in this evenly matched bout.
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UK fans can stream live via Discovery+ with a TNT Sports subscription or access TNT through BT Broadband.
US viewers need an active ESPN+ account and a one-off PPV purchase to unlock the main card.
Early Prelims are universally available via UFC Fight Pass worldwide.
📺 Regional Viewing Summary
UK & Ireland
Early Prelims: UFC Fight Pass
Prelims: UFC Fight Pass or TNT Sports 1
Main Card: TNT Sports 1 or Discovery+
United States
Early Prelims: ESPN2, ESPN+, Disney+
Prelims: ESPN, ESPN+, Disney+
Main Card: Pay-per-view on ESPN+
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