How To Find Value Bets

Winning at betting isn’t about gut feel or lucky accas. The only long-term strategy that works is value betting. That begs a question, how to find value bets?
This guide covers:

✅ What a value bet actually is
✅ How to calculate value properly
✅ Why the bookies get it wrong
✅ How to find value bets in football, racing and more
✅ Where to get sharp daily tips if you don’t want to do it all yourself

What Is a Value Bet?

A value bet is when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the actual chance of the outcome.

In simple terms:

If your estimated chance of something happening is greater than what the odds imply, it’s a value bet.

Let’s say:

  • You think a team has a 50 percent chance of winning

  • But the bookie is offering odds of 2.50 (6/4), which suggests just a 40 percent chance

That’s value. The bookie has underpriced it. Over time, betting in situations like this will make you money, even if some bets lose along the way.

How to Calculate a Value Bet

To work out whether a bet offers value, you need two things:

  1. Your estimated probability of the outcome

  2. The bookmaker’s odds

Use this formula:

Value = (Your probability x Bookmaker odds) – 1

If the result is more than zero, it’s a value bet.

Example:

  • You believe a team has a 50 percent chance of winning (0.50)

  • The odds are 2.50

  • Value = (0.50 x 2.50) – 1 = 0.25
    That means you have a 25 percent edge on the price

Why Bookies Still Get It Wrong

Bookmakers are sharp, but their odds are not always perfect. They don’t just price based on true probability. They also factor in:

✅ Public money and popularity

✅ Bias from recent results

✅ Injuries or news that hasn’t fully hit the market

✅ Pressure to be first to price a market

✅ How emotional punters bet

✅ All of this creates gaps in the market. That’s where the value is.

How We Find Value Bets at Tipman

Everything we tip is built around value. We don’t chase favourites or random winners. We compare our own pricing and analysis against what the bookies are offering. If they’ve got it wrong, we get on.

That’s why we’ve built separate services for:

We rely on data, research and market reading. Not guesswork.

Value Betting in Football

Football betting is full of bad prices, mostly because it’s full of casual punters.

We find value in:

✅ Overreactions to recent results

✅ Teams missing key players that the odds haven’t adjusted for

✅ Markets like cards, corners or BTTS that are often mispriced

✅ Early prices that change massively after lineups are confirmed

📖 Read more: How to Spot Value Football Bets

Value Betting in Horse Racing

Racing markets move fast, which makes them perfect for value hunting.

We look for:

✅ Horses dropping in class

✅ Runners with strong course or ground form getting overlooked

✅ Market drifters that are still solid on paper

✅ Overhyped favourites creating value on others

📖 Full breakdown here: Value Bets in Horse Racing

Why Most Punters Lose

The bookies stay in business because most punters:

✅ Bet without thinking

✅ Chase odds instead of value

✅ Back favourites blindly

✅ Follow poor tipsters or mates’ bets

✅ Not knowing how to find value bets

That’s not how you win. If you’re not thinking in terms of edge and price, you’re just gambling for fun — and the bookie loves that.

Want Daily Value Bets Without the Work?

If you want to spend hours researching, building your own models and checking 20 bookies for value — crack on.

But if you want real value bets sent to you daily, from people who do this properly, we’ve got you.

  • Football and racing tips based on value

  • Options for regular punters or high rollers

  • Telegram access and full transparency

  • Try us for free or go Premium today

Because the truth is simple. If you’re not betting with value, you’re not betting smart.

👉Join Premium Value Tipping Today

👉 Join the Tipman Elite Value Betting team here

Betting is not about luck. It is about getting the price right.

Across the TipMan website, we update our free betting tips pages DAILY. See below for links to see our latest tips:

Horse Racing

Football