What Is a Value Bet in Horse Racing?

A value bet is where the odds are bigger than the horse’s actual chance of winning. You’re not just trying to find the winner, you’re trying to beat the price.

If a horse has a 25% chance of winning, fair odds would be 3/1. If you’re getting 5/1, that’s value. You won’t win every time, but over the long term, this approach beats blindly backing favourites or tipping based on gut feel.

Value is not about guessing what will win. It is about finding bets where the odds are too big. That is what creates long term profit.

Why Bookies Often Get Racing Odds Wrong

Racing is unpredictable. Bookies price up hundreds of races across the UK, Ireland and abroad every day. Mistakes happen and that’s where value creeps in.

Prices can be wrong because of:

  • A stable change or new headgear

  • Soft ground suiting a mudlark that’s been running on firm

  • A switch to a jockey with a better record on the horse

  • A horse returning to its ideal trip after a prep run

They can also just be slow to react when insiders get involved early.

Real Example: Goodwood, May 2024 – “Rogue Tornado”

In a Class 4 handicap, Rogue Tornado opened at 20/1. His form on paper looked patchy, but he’d been running over 10 furlongs on quick ground. That day he dropped to a mile, had soft conditions, and was reunited with a jockey who had won on him twice before.

Tipman flagged it up early and the horse went off at 11/1, eventually placing second. That’s classic value, the price was way too big, and the market caught up late.

How to Spot a Value Bet in Racing?

1. Make Your Own Tissues

Price up the race before looking at the market. Even if it’s rough, get into the habit of estimating how likely each horse is to win. Compare your odds to the bookies’ — where you see a big difference, you might have value.

2. Check Ground, Trip and Tactics

Horses often run below par in the wrong conditions. Watch for runners dropping in class, stepping back up in trip, or getting ideal ground for the first time in a while.

3. Use Tools — But Add Your Brain

Don’t rely purely on numbers. Combine ratings and market trends with form study. Look for context the market might have missed.

You can find value betting tips on football too, but Racing Value Tips are more common and easier to find.

Real Example: Doncaster, March 2025 – “Ski Jump”

This one had been beaten out of sight in two novice runs on heavy ground. On debut in a handicap, dropped to good ground and upped in trip, it was tipped at 18/1 by our racing team. It drifted to 25s and won comfortably.

The form alone didn’t shout winner — but the conditions, placement and race profile screamed value. That’s the sweet spot.

Each-Way Value: Don’t Overlook It

Not all value is in the win market.

Each-way value is often found in:

  • 8+ runner handicaps with short-priced favourites

  • Races where bookies boost the place terms

  • Horses that place consistently without winning

If your horse finishes third at 20/1 and you had 1/5 odds a place, you’re profiting — even without a winner.

How to Spot a Value Bet

Spotting a value bet in horse racing starts with one simple question. Is the price bigger than the horse’s true chance of winning? You are looking for runners the market has overlooked. That could be a horse running over the wrong trip last time, not handling the ground, or coming from a yard that does not attract money. The key is to judge the horse’s chance for yourself before checking the odds. If you think it has a one in four chance of winning and the bookie is offering five to one, you are getting value. It does not matter if it wins today. What matters is making these types of bets over and over. That is how you end up with long term profit.

Track Your Performance

If you’re consistently taking bigger odds than the Betfair Starting Price (BSP), you’re likely finding value.

Keep a simple record:

  • Horse name

  • Odds taken

  • BSP

  • Result

  • Profit or Loss

Over time, you’ll see whether your edge is real or not.

Want Help Finding Value?

Our Tipman Premium Racing team does the hard work for you. Every day we dig through the cards, spot overpriced runners and send them direct to your inbox. All backed by research — not guesswork.

Join Premium Value Tipping Today

👉 Join the Tipman Elite Value Betting team here

Betting is not about luck. It is about getting the price right.

Across the TipMan website, we update our free betting tips pages DAILY. See below for links to see our latest tips:

Horse Racing

Football