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First race of the day at Ascot here and the one to beat is Mondoui’boy from the Pauling yard. Reasonable runs on first two starts before progressing as we thought he would to win lto at Ludlow with relative ease. Winning distance only 4.5L but could’ve been a lot further, he just didn’t need to push it. This youngster holds entries into the Albert Bartlett and the Turners and for good reason. Very nice pedigree, clear ability and he’s only just getting started. This looks an ideal warm up race here at Ascot where the yard and jockey both have a brilliant record. When combining here at this course they’ve won just under a third of all starts in the last few years. Mondoui’boy is the most unexposed horse in the field and remains open to any amount of progression. Tougher assignment today but quite frankly could take it in his stride and handily. Big chance, the one to beat, but not sure he will be.

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Progressive youngster from the Nicholls yard who has form of 221 in first three rules starts in this country and remains unexposed. The form from those previous races is reasonably strong and they were warm races. Won lto in very fine style and looks a talented young horse who’s ceiling has definitely not been reached thus far. Runs the same trip here today on suited ground and whilst this is a tougher assignment, looks capable of taking it. Represents a strong stable with a good record here and has a talented young jockey aboard in Freddie Gingell. Looks a major player and has to be taken very seriously today.

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Despite losing streak now being 15, as a result of this Mc Loven is on a mark that can’t be ignored today. Has good course form, does most of his running here and the return to 5f today is a big positive. Mc Loven has stacks of pace and likes a quickly run race from the front. He has a plum draw from stall 1 today so likely to be able to dictate just that and looks a danger in this. Inform jockey Paddy Bradley back aboard for the ride today which is a good thing and this race is not overly strong and Mc Loven looks to be on a winning mark now. Likely winner.

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Eleven year old Your Darling remains on a very workable mark and is largely a consistent horse with form of 1P142 since November 2023. Had some trouble at the start lto but despite that ran a cracker of a race and if it wasn’t for a slight blunder at the last, would have won that race. This trip is ideal for Your Darling and the forecast ground is no concern. Has a good history here including a Class 2 chase back in November 2023 and looks a bit of value at 9/1 quite frankly. Represents a strong and successful yard and has stable jockey Ben Jones aboard who has been riding brilliantly all season so far. Yard and jockey have a 31% combined strikerate here at Ascot and that’s a very strong statistic, particularly here. Race looks wide open and Your Darling is a major player. Good chance.

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Newcastle. Some talented horses in here and one who looks a nice price at 8/1 is seven year old Francesi from the Carroll’s. Consistent and clearly not reached his ceiling just yet. Form reads 11222 since New Years Day and only went down a neck into second lto despite losing a shoe. Strong miler in this sphere and whilst this is a tougher assignment than last time, this boy seems to improve every time at the moment. Only 1lb higher today and that doesn’t look enough to curtail chances. Has a plum draw from stall 1 and if Myla can get this boy dictating things from the front as he loves to do, he will take some catching. Looks a little overpriced at 8/1 and wouldn’t be surprised if that shortened a little bit before the off. Should be placing at the very least but capable of winning this too.

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Seventh place Preston North End host twelfth place Watford in what should be an interesting match. Within the previous four head-to-head matches the hosts Preston find themselves unbeaten, winning two and drawing twice.

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The hosts Sheffield Wednesday come in-to the match in terrible form, losing all nine of their previous nine matches. Meanwhile the visitors Millwall have managed to win three of their previous five matches, only losing once within that run.

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The hosts Blackpool have been involved in seven matches resulting in over 2.5 match goals within their previous nine matches. Within the previous three head-to-head matches, two have resulted in over 2.5 match goals.

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The hosts Exeter come in-to the match winless within their previous three games, meanwhile the visitors Northampton find themselves unbeaten in their previous three outings. Within the previous five head-to-head matches the visitors Northampton have only lost once.

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The hosts Derby have been involved in three matches resulting in both teams scoring within their previous five matches, managing to score in all five games. Meanwhile the visitors Swansea have also been involved in three matches resulting in both teams scoring within their previous three matches, scoring in all five games.

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The hosts Portsmouth have managed to score in four of their previous five matches, meanwhile the visitors Sheffield United have been involved in four matches resulting in both teams scoring within their previous four games.

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The hosts Barnsley have been involved in four matches resulting in both teams scoring within their previous five matches. Meanwhile the visitors Wimbledon come in-to the match in good scoring form, managing to score in four of their previous five matches.

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The visitors Peterborough have been involved in three matches resulting in both teams scoring within their previous four matches. Within the previous five head-to-head matches, all five games have resulted in both teams scoring.

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Excellent opportunity at three points today for the hosts QPR as they host a struggling Blackburn side. Within the previous four head-to-head matches the hosts QPR hold the advantage, managing to win three games and losing once.

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This Championship fixture has a well-documented pattern of both sides finding the net: Norwich have conceded in around 73 % of matches this season and scored frequently, while West Brom also have a high goals-for output and a tendency to concede. Historical head-to-head data show BTTS (both teams to score) occurred in over half of previous meetings, and both sides average multiple goals in matches — underlining the likelihood both will score here.

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Although recent head-to-head form is mixed, Championship data indicate that QPR and Blackburn have been involved in games with scoring from both sides, especially when QPR carry attacking momentum at home and Blackburn maintain goal output despite defensive lapses. Betting markets also reflect a strong BTTS probability for this exact fixture, suggesting both sides are likely to find the net.

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In League One this season, Reading have posted one of the highest BTTS percentages in the division (around 67 %), reflecting a strong scoring rate but also defensive vulnerability. Wycombe, while not as prolific, also contribute regularly to goal exchanges, making BTTS a statistically backed selection in this evenly matched League One contest.

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Exeter’s matches this season have shown a decent goals-for rate, and Northampton — despite mixed league position — have also contributed to scoring games recently. Both teams can be involved in open, end-to-end contests characteristic of mid-table League One fixtures, increasing the probability of goals at both ends. (Based on overall League One BTTS trends.)

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Lincoln and Bolton’s recent League One results illustrate their capacity to both score and concede: Lincoln’s matches have featured multiple goals on average, while Bolton’s defensive record suggests they often concede — even when scoring themselves. This combination contributes to a strong BTTS angle here. (Drawn from broader league BTTS data.)

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Both sides tend to take an attacking approach in League One, and their matches often see goals at both ends due to defensive openness. With Cardiff and Luton boasting decent scoring records but porous backlines, BTTS becomes a compelling pick backed by the general League One BTTS environment.

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In League Two and lower-tier fixtures like Oldham vs Fleetwood, BTTS rates tend to be strong as teams often struggle to shut opponents out while still creating chances. Both Oldham and Fleetwood have shown this pattern across the season, making BTTS a statistically sensible selection here.

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Tranmere and Crawley games have historically delivered plenty of goals from both sides, reflecting open, attacking play styles and defensive vulnerability on both ends. Combined with the general BTTS trend seen in lower English leagues this season, this fixture has a solid base for both teams to score.

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Bristol City come into this FA Cup tie as clear favourites against struggling Port Vale. Vale sit at the bottom of League One and have been inconsistent at home, failing to win or stay competitive in many recent matches, whereas Bristol City are mid-table in the Championship and have stronger form, including solid cup performances this season. City have dominated the head-to-head historically and possess higher quality across the pitch, making them the reliable pick to progress.

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Southampton boast the better form in recent Championship fixtures, including a 4-3 away victory over Leicester in their most recent meeting, where Southampton showed control in key attacking metrics like shots and possession. Their recent win and more consistent form in front of goal give them the edge over a Leicester side that has been patchy and less consistent this season.

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Sheffield United, sitting above Portsmouth in the Championship standings, come into this with a stronger overall record and better recent results. United have had more consistency both home and away while Portsmouth lie lower down the table with less attacking potency. The visitors’ league position and squad depth point toward a United success here.

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Wednesday are enduring a disastrous campaign, extending a long goal drought and string of losses, with no goals in recent matches and relegation looming. Millwall, by contrast, sit significantly higher in the Championship and are far more competitive. Given Wednesday’s lack of offensive threat, Millwall are the clear pick here.

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In League One action, Blackpool have shown better recent performances, including a win in their latest match while Plymouth have struggled for consistency. Blackpool’s greater goal threat and home advantage make them attractive as the likely winners.

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Colchester United sit above Barrow in the League Two table and have a stronger overall record this season, reflected in better form and league position. Barrow are entrenched near the bottom of the division with a negative goal difference, making Colchester the more reliable choice.

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Chesterfield are comfortably placed in League Two’s top half with a solid points tally, whereas Harrogate City are rooted at the foot of the table with one of the poorest records in the division. Chesterfield’s positive form and goal scoring edge make them a confident pick.

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Swindon Town lead the League Two standings and have been one of the division’s best sides this season, while Shrewsbury sit near the bottom with limited wins. The gulf in quality and consistency points strongly toward an away victory for Swindon.

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Southend aren’t in the EFL but, considering their recent competitive performances in non-league/FA Cup qualifying rounds and Morecambe’s inconsistent League Two form, a Southend home success is a justified pick — especially if Morecambe remain shaky defensively.

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Rochdale are among the stronger sides in the National League (or at least higher tiers if data available) and have superior recent results and table position compared to Yeovil, who have been less consistent. This strength advantage makes Rochdale the favored outcome.

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EFL Championship – QPR v Blackburn Rovers

14 February, 15:00 – Loftus Road

QPR v Blackburn Rovers Preview

Queens Park Rangers return to Loftus Road knowing that another home victory could thrust them firmly into the Championship playoff conversation. Despite a frustrating 0-0 draw at Charlton last time out, the Hoops remain just three points off the top six and have lost only one of their last six league matches.

Home form has been the driving force behind their climb. QPR have won six of their last eight at Loftus Road, scoring at least twice in seven of those games. Julien Stephan’s side are front-footed in West London, pressing aggressively and creating a high volume of chances, particularly through wide areas.

Meanwhile, Blackburn Rovers arrive amid managerial change and inconsistency. After parting company with Valerien Ismael, Rovers have struggled to generate sustained momentum. A narrow 1-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday was quickly followed by a 2-0 defeat at Norwich City, underlining their fragility on the road.

Blackburn have managed just one win in their last 11 matches across all competitions and continue to be hampered by injuries. Defensive vulnerabilities and a lack of cutting edge in key moments have proven costly, especially away from Ewood Park.

Given QPR’s attacking output at home and Blackburn’s defensive instability, this fixture has the ingredients for goals — and potentially an entertaining Championship contest.

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EFL Championship – Derby County v Swansea City

14 Feb, 15:00 – Pride Park

Derby County v Swansea City Preview

Derby County return to Pride Park looking to bounce back from a frustrating 2-1 home defeat to Ipswich which followed their emphatic 5-0 demolition of Bristol City on the road.

John Eustace’s side remain just two points off the playoff places, but inconsistency at home has prevented The Rams from climbing higher. Derby boast one of the division’s strongest away records, yet Pride Park has not delivered the same authority. Five wins in their last 14 league matches highlights their stop-start nature.

Swansea City, meanwhile, continue to improve under Vítor Matos. Since taking charge in November, the Portuguese coach has overseen a top-seven points return in the division across that spell. Recent away clean-sheet victories at Oxford United and Watford suggest growing resilience.

However, Swansea’s overall away record remains patchy. Nine defeats in 15 away league matches underlines vulnerability on the road, even if performances have improved in recent weeks.

With both sides chasing a top-six push, this has the ingredients for an open and competitive Championship encounter.

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Leeds United come into this fixture with superior attacking depth, intensity, and recent form, giving them the edge over a Birmingham side that has struggled for consistency. Leeds’ high pressing, fast transitions, and goal threat across multiple positions make them well-equipped to control the game and take all three points.

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Both teams favour attacking football and have shown defensive vulnerabilities this season, making a high-scoring contest likely. Leeds’ aggressive forward play, combined with Birmingham’s ability to create chances at home, points toward multiple goals being scored.

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Leeds’ relentless attacking approach and frequent use of wide areas often lead to blocked shots and defensive clearances, increasing corner volume. Birmingham’s tendency to counter and deliver crosses into the box should further contribute to a steady flow of corners throughout the match.

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Jay Stansfield remains Birmingham’s most dynamic attacking threat, known for his movement, work rate, and willingness to take shots when opportunities arise. With Birmingham likely to rely on quick transitions and direct attacking play, Stansfield should see enough involvement in the final third to register at least one effort on target.

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Grimsby tend to play with freedom at home and will be motivated to make an impact against Premier League opposition, while Wolves possess the attacking quality to punish defensive lapses. With Wolves likely to dominate possession and Grimsby dangerous on counters and set pieces, both teams have a strong chance of finding the net.

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Cup fixtures between teams from different divisions often carry a high-intensity, emotional edge, leading to strong challenges and frequent fouls. Grimsby’s physical approach and Wolves’ quick, technical attackers could draw multiple bookings, making over 3.5 cards a solid disciplinary angle.

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Wolves’ attacking pressure and tendency to force blocks and deflections should contribute heavily to the corner count, while Grimsby’s reliance on wide play and long-ball attacks can also generate set-piece opportunities. Sustained spells in both final thirds point toward a healthy number of corners.

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Andy Cook is Grimsby’s primary attacking outlet and their most reliable goal threat, regularly getting into shooting positions and testing goalkeepers. With Grimsby likely to target direct attacks and crosses into the box, Cook should have opportunities to register at least one effort on target.

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Liverpool’s home form and attacking intensity at Anfield make them favourites in this matchup, especially against a Brighton side that can struggle defensively on the road. With superior squad depth, pressing quality, and proven big-game performers, Liverpool have the edge to secure all three points.

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Meetings between Liverpool and Brighton regularly produce goals due to both teams’ attacking philosophies and high defensive lines. Liverpool’s relentless forward pressure, combined with Brighton’s willingness to play out from the back, creates ideal conditions for a high-scoring encounter.

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Both sides generate a high number of attacking sequences, with Liverpool’s wide play and Brighton’s build-up style often forcing defensive clearances. Sustained pressure in the final third at both ends makes a healthy corner count likely throughout the match.

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Jan Paul van Hecke is likely to be heavily involved defensively against Liverpool’s fast and direct attack, particularly when dealing with Mohamed Salah and other pacey forwards. With frequent duels, recovery challenges, and high defensive pressure expected, he is a strong candidate to pick up a booking.